Many long-range forecasts of technical feasibility dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they rest on what the speaker calls the 'intuitive linear' view of technological progress rather than the 'historical exponential view'.

This is Kurzweil's stated thesis: many long-range technical-feasibility forecasts underestimate future technology because they assume linear ('intuitive linear') rather than exponential ('historical exponential') progress. Judge as a characterization of his own argument/terminology. True if this accurately represents his stated position and terminology (the terms appear in his work and the reasoning is as described). Mostly true if accurately represented with a trivial wording difference. Mixed if partly supported. Mostly false if the terminology or reasoning is materially misattributed. False if he never advanced this argument or used these terms.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Raymond Kurzweil, Academy Class of 2000, Part 18 | Academy of Achievement Academy of Achievement · 30 August 2020

   “I call this the “intuitive linear view” versus the “historical exponential view.””

2. E2 Raymond Kurzweil, Academy Class of 2000, Part 18 | Academy of Achievement Academy of Achievement · 30 August 2020

   “People will say, “Oh well, we won’t see nanotechnology self-replicators for a hundred years.”

3. E3 Ray Kurzweil's economics - Econlib Econlib (Liberty Fund) · 18 October 2005

   “To Kurzweil, this forecast would be ludicrously pessimistic. He would see it as an example of what he calls “intuitive linear” thinking, in which people forecast the future on the basis of a linear extrapolation of the past.”

4. E4 The singularity is near : when humans transcend biology / Ray Kurzweil Smithsonian Libraries and Archives

   “1. The six epochs -- The intuitive linear view versus the historical exponential view -- The six epochs”

The question is whether this is a fair account of Kurzweil's own argument and terms. In his Academy of Achievement interview (Class of 2000), Kurzweil says "I call this the 'intuitive linear view' versus the 'historical exponential view'" (E1). He gives a forecast about when nanotechnology self-replicators will be feasible as an example of the linear thinking he means (E2). An independent Econlib commentary (E3) describes his "intuitive linear" thinking as forecasting the future from a linear extrapolation of the past, and says he sees forecasts built that way as too pessimistic. A Smithsonian catalogue record (E4) shows the same pair of terms as a section title in his book "The Singularity Is Near". Together these show that both the terms and the reasoning are his, so the claim resolves true.