Burry said he fully expected the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio for members to decrease quite significantly as assets under management grew with new investors.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Test: did the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio fall significantly after 2001 as its assets under management grew? True: the reported expense ratio fell substantially (for example by a third or more) as assets grew. Mostly true: it fell noticeably, but less than 'significantly'. Mixed: not used. Mostly false: it fell only marginally. False: it was flat or rose despite asset growth.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (11)
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E1 Michael Burry behind The Big Short - grimlogs.com grimlogs.com (excerpt from Michael Lewis, The Big Short)
“Scion charged actual expenses, usually below 1 percent of AUM.”
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E2 Scion-Capital-Letters.pdf Scribd (hosting Scion Capital investor letters) · 8 January 2001 Own record
“The other is assets under management (AUM) — as AUM increase, the expense ratio will decrease.”
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E3 Scion-Capital-Letters.pdf Scribd (hosting Scion Capital investor letters) · 8 January 2001 Own record
“This has had the effect of increasing the expense rutio for the rest of us.”
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E4 Michael Burry behind The Big Short - grimlogs.com grimlogs.com (excerpt from Michael Lewis, The Big Short)
“By late 2004, Burry managed $600 million and refused new money.”
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E5 Scion-Capital-Letters.pdf Scribd · 8 January 2001 Own record
“I fully expect the expense ratio to which you are exposed to decrease quite significantly in response to increased assets under management as these and other potential iavestoss become members of the Fund”
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E6 Scion-Capital-Letters.pdf Scribd · 3 July 2001 Own record
“As has beon the experience thus far, the expense ratio will continue to fall as this number grows”
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E7 Michael Burry behind The Big Short - grimlogs.com grimlogs.com (excerpt of Michael Lewis, The Big Short)
“Scion charged actual expenses, usually below 1 percent of AUM.”
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E8 Michael Burry behind The Big Short - grimlogs.com grimlogs.com (excerpt of Michael Lewis, The Big Short)
“By late 2004, Burry managed $600 million and refused new money.”
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E9 Scion Capital Letters.pdf Scribd (repost of Scion Value Fund annual and quarterly letters) · 3 July 2001 Own record
“Fuity in the Fund now exceeds $14.7 million. As has beon the experience thus far, the expense ratio will continue to fall as this number grows”
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E10 Betting on the Blind Side - By Michael Lewis Value Investing World (repost of Michael Lewis's article) · 2 March 2010
“By the end of 2004, Mike Burry was managing $600 million and turning money away.”
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E11 Burry Scion1q2001 Scribd (repost of Scion Value Fund letter) · 3 April 2001 Own record
“Volatility Revisited Because expenses are relatively fixed, higher amounts of assets dilute the expense ratio.”
Reasoning
The only evidence that the expense ratio fell comes from Burry's own investor letters. The July 2001 letter (E6, E9) says that "as has been the experience thus far, the expense ratio will continue to fall," but gives no figures for any period. Independent accounts confirm that assets grew to about $600 million by late 2004 (E4, E10) and say Scion's expenses were "usually below 1 percent of AUM" (E1), but they give no year-by-year ratios. Without any reported figures, the evidence cannot show whether the ratio fell by about a third or more as assets grew.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “Burry said he fully expected the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio for members to decrease quite significantly as assets under management grew with new investors.” (said 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_64ec50b5b4e4, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_64ec50b5b4e4
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Michael Burry
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Mostly false
“All personal income taxes collected in a year do not so much as add up to $1 trillion dollars, and yet by 2020 interest expense on our national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion.”
US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020.
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Resolved true
“Today, I expect the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term”
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Mixed
“I imagine the shares of these companies, in most cases, will become very boring before they become attractive again.”
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Mostly true
“Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now in the cards.”
Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions.
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Resolved true
“The S&P 500 could easily finish the year in the negative, dragging many investment funds – too many of which are crowded into the same “value-but-for-a-dire-economy” trades – down with it.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.