ClaimsScott Alexander

“I think if we don’t have that arms race, we’re more like, the geniuses sit in their data center until somebody agrees to let them out and give them permission to do these things.”

Scott Alexander, interviewee 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Prediction AI safety and alignment

Without an arms race, advanced AIs would stay in their data centers until someone gave them permission to act.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Counterfactual about a no-arms-race world.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Without an arms race, advanced AIs would stay in their data centers until someone gave them permission to act.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_634007c86705, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_634007c86705

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 20 February 2023
    “I expect scaling to continue to produce gains, but this is less obvious than it’s been the past five years.”

    Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.