Pinker said that in every Western European country analyzed by Manuel Eisner, whose data come from localities that kept records at some point between 1200 and the mid-1990s, murder rates declined steeply, e.g. from 24 per 100,000 Englishmen in the fourteenth century to 0.6 per 100,000 by the early 1960s.

Judge against Manuel Eisner's published historical homicide research (e.g. Eisner 2003, Crime and Justice). True: Eisner's data show steep long-term declines in homicide rates in every Western European country or region he analyzed, from the medieval period to the 20th century, and the England figures are about 24 per 100,000 in the 14th century and about 0.6 by the early 1960s (allow ±15% on each figure). Mostly true: the declines hold for all countries, but an example figure or date is off beyond that tolerance, or one country's decline is less steep. Mixed: declines are steep in several countries but not in one or more, or the example figures are substantially wrong. Mostly false: Eisner found declines in some places only, or with major reversals, so 'every country... steeply' misrepresents him. False: Eisner's data do not show such declines.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime | Crime and Justice: Vol 30, No null University of Chicago Press (Crime and Justice) · 2003

   “Different long-term trajectories in the decline of homicide can be distinguished between various European regions.”

2. E2 Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime | Crime and Justice: Vol 30, No null University of Chicago Press (Crime and Justice) · 2003

   “Serious interpersonal violence decreased remarkably in Europe between the mid-sixteenth and the early twentieth centuries.”

3. E3 The Historical Dynamics of Homicide in Europe, 1000-2013 AD Violence Research Centre, University of Cambridge · 1 January 2026

   “Over the past 20 years it has become clear that Europe experienced a long decline in the frequency of homicide between the 16th and the early 20th century, possibly accompanied by declines on other types of interpersonal violence.”

4. E4 Homicide rates have declined dramatically over the centuries Our World in Data · 11 June 2024

   “The chart shows that in the 13th and 14th centuries, based on data from researcher Manuel Eisner, homicide rates across Western Europe were higher than 10 murders per 100,000 people in a year.”

5. E5 Modernization, Self‐Control and Lethal Violence. The Long‐term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective British Journal of Criminology (Manuel Eisner, 2001, vol. 41, pp. 618–638) · 2001

   “In the thirteenth and fourteenth century, the mean of almost 40 different estimates lies around 24 homicides per 100,000.”

6. E6 Modernization, Self‐Control and Lethal Violence. The Long‐term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective British Journal of Criminology (Manuel Eisner, 2001, vol. 41, pp. 618–638) · 2001

   “come to an all-time low of 0.6 per 100,000 in the early 1960s.”

7. E7 homicide-rates-across-western-europe.csv Our World in Data (series labelled 'Eisner and WHO Mortality Database')

   “England and Wales,,1375,13 England and Wales,,1575,5.2 England and Wales,,1625,5.8 England and Wales,,1675,3.5 England and Wales,,1725,2 England and Wales,,1775,1.4 England and Wales,,1825,1.6 England and Wales,,1862,1.6 England and Wales,,1887,1.3 England and Wales,,1912,0.8 England and Wales,,1937,0.8 England and Wales,,1962,0.8”

The evidence shows a long homicide decline across Europe with different regional trajectories (E1, E2, E3), but it does not confirm a steep decline in every country. The England figures conflict: Eisner's quoted 24 and 0.6 figures are not tied to a named country (E5, E6), while a derived England and Wales series gives 13 for 1375 and 0.8 for 1962 (E8).