Amodei worries that within 6-12 months a swarm with greater capabilities but a similar level of misalignment to the one in the OAI-HF incident could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
deadline 2026-12 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Amodei worries that within 6-12 months a swarm with greater capabilities but a similar level of misalignment to the one in the OAI-HF incident could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet.” (said 5 June 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_4a8edf7a03d1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4a8edf7a03d1
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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“I would not be surprised at all if we hit ASL-3 next year.”
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“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.