Taleb's first book was published about 20 years ago and is still selling.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
True: Taleb's first published book (expected to be Dynamic Hedging, Wiley) was published about 20 years before April 2018, that is between roughly 1996 and 2000, and was still in print or on sale new in 2018. Mostly true: the book was still selling, but the publication date is a few years outside that window (roughly 1994–1995 or 2001–2002). Mixed: one part holds and the other clearly fails. Mostly false: the book was published about 20 years earlier but was out of print or no longer on sale in 2018. False: his first book was published far from 20 years earlier and was not still selling.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Dynamic hedging : managing vanilla and exotic options : Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960- : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive Internet Archive (catalogue record built from library MARC data, including OCLC and LCCN identifiers) · 1 April 2022
“Publication date - 1997 - Topics”
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E2 Dynamic hedging : managing vanilla and exotic options Stanford University Libraries (SearchWorks catalogue record)
“noted option arbitrageur Nassim Taleb uniquely covers both on-model and off-model derivatives risks.”
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E3 Dynamic Hedging Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options eCampus (bookseller listing) · 14 January 1997
“PART I MARKETS, INSTRUMENTS, PEOPLE”
Reasoning
The Internet Archive library catalogue record [E1] gives 1997 as the publication date of Taleb's Dynamic Hedging, about 21 years before April 2018, so the date part of the claim holds. No item shows the book was in print or on sale new in 2018. The eCampus listing [E3] is dated 1997, and its quote is only a table-of-contents heading. The Stanford record [E2] gives no date or availability information. Since the evidence does not settle the 'still selling' part, the claim cannot be resolved under the criteria.
Cite this claim
Nassim Taleb, “Taleb's first book was published about 20 years ago and is still selling.” (said 11 April 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_49836f076bde, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_49836f076bde
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Nassim Taleb
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Mostly true
“adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions (includes Tsallis Entropy).”
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Resolved true
“Just to remind people that I have NOTHING to do with "nassimtaleb. org"”
Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org".
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Resolved true
“We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1)”
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Resolved true
“I am writing these lines from the vantage point of my specialty of decision making under uncertainty, not that of theology”
The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology.
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Mostly true
“This part in Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of depositors in #Lebanon who enjoyed steady AND high returns.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.