ClaimsSteven Pinker

“I don’t know that it’s going to be exponential.”

Steven Pinker, interviewee 2023 The Intelligence and Rationality of AI and Humans: A Conversation With Steven Pinker (Harvard Data Science Review) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Pinker expressed doubt that the growth of large language models will be exponential.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

The prediction has no stated horizon and 'exponential' growth is not defined by any metric.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Pinker expressed doubt that the growth of large language models will be exponential.” (said 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_45daec2bd4aa, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_45daec2bd4aa

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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