ClaimsScott Alexander

“they found that people’s unconscious partisan biases were half again as strong as their unconscious racial biases”

Scott Alexander, blogger 30 September 2014 I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

A recent Implicit Association Test study using political parties found unconscious partisan biases were about 1.5 times as strong as unconscious racial biases.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2014-09-30. True: a recent study (for example Iyengar & Westwood, 2014/2015) that ran an Implicit Association Test with political parties found implicit partisan bias about 1.5 times as strong as implicit racial bias (an effect-size ratio of roughly 1.3–1.7). Mostly true: the study found partisan implicit bias clearly stronger than racial implicit bias, but the ratio is somewhat outside 'half again' (for example 1.2 or 1.9). Mixed: partisan bias was stronger on some measures and not on others. Mostly false: the study exists but found the two biases about equal, or the ratio comes from a different kind of measure (for example explicit bias). False: no such study exists, or it found racial implicit bias stronger.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Fear and Loathing across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization American Journal of Political Science (Shanto Iyengar and Sean J. Westwood; PDF hosted on Stanford course site) · July 2015

    “the black-white difference in implicit bias was substantial, t(740.10) = 11.04, p < .001, but the effect size for race (Cohen’s d = .61) was not nearly as strong as the corresponding effect of party (Cohen’s d = .95).”
  2. E2 Fear and Loathing across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization American Journal of Political Science (Shanto Iyengar and Sean J. Westwood; PDF hosted on Stanford course site) · July 2015

    “Our evidence demonstrates that hostile feelings for the opposing party are ingrained or automatic in voters’ minds, and that affective polarization based on party is just as strong as polarization based on race.”
  3. E3 “Political identity is fair game for hatred”: how Republicans and Democrats discriminate Vox · 7 December 2015

    “According to the test, Americans are more automatically partisan than they are automatically racist.”

Reasoning

The published Iyengar & Westwood study [E1] gives Implicit Association Test effect sizes of Cohen's d = .95 for party and d = .61 for race. That is a ratio of about 1.56, within the 1.3–1.7 range for "half again as strong". The paper also states that affective polarization based on party is "just as strong" as polarization based on race [E2], but the implicit-bias effect sizes it reports show a larger effect for party (Cohen's d = .95) than for race (d = .61) [E1]. A Vox article [E3] independently reports that the test found partisan automatic bias stronger than racial automatic bias.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “A recent Implicit Association Test study using political parties found unconscious partisan biases were about 1.5 times as strong as unconscious racial biases.” (said 30 September 2014). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3e4a89622bcb, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3e4a89622bcb

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin”

    A team described as some of the best superforecasters in the world won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by a large margin, described as around twice as good as the next-best team in relative Brier score.

  2. Mostly true Factual 30 September 2014
    “Some of it is certainly genetic – estimates of the genetic contribution to political association range from 0.4 to 0.6.”

    Estimates of the genetic contribution to political association range from 0.4 to 0.6.

  3. Mostly true Factual 30 September 2014
    “Heritability of one’s attitudes toward gay rights range from 0.3 to 0.5, which hilariously is a little more heritable than homosexuality itself.”

    Heritability of attitudes toward gay rights is estimated at 0.3 to 0.5, slightly higher than the heritability of homosexuality.

  4. Mostly true Factual 19 October 2026
    “MNX is a real-money prediction market on AI.”

    MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI.

  5. Resolved true Factual 19 October 2026
    “Friend of the blog Goodheart Labs is working on Common Notes, aka “Twitter Community Notes, but for everything”.”

    Goodheart Labs is working on Common Notes, described as Twitter Community Notes but for everything.

All of them

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