ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“We have a one hundred fold increase in the number of college students.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

The number of college students has increased one hundred fold.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Measure US college enrollment growth over the period Kurzweil's essay refers to. If no period is given, use the late 19th century (about 1870–1900) to about 2000. The claim is a rough figure. True: the increase was about hundredfold, meaning a ratio of roughly 70x to 150x. Mostly true: the ratio was 50x–70x, or above 150x (growth even larger than stated). Mostly false: the ratio was 20x–50x. False: the ratio was below 20x.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (5)

  1. E1 Digest of Education Statistics, 2007 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics · 11 February 2008

    “Total fall enrollment6 | 52,286 | 3 | 115,817 | 3 | 156,756 | 3 | 237,592 | | 355,213 | 3 | 597,880 | | 1,100,737 | | 1,494,203 | | 2,659,021 | | 3,639,847 | | 8,004,660 | | 11,569,899 | | 13,538,560 | | 14,791,224”
  2. E2 [PDF] www.ssoar.info The expansion of American higher education GESIS / Colin B. Burke, in K. H. Jarausch (Ed.), The transformation of higher learning 1860-1930 · 1982

    “The sudden increase in total attendance in 1870 (Table 1) is somewhat of an artifact: a result of a shift in the inclusiveness of the category "higher education."”
  3. E3 Digest of Education Statistics, 2003 National Center for Education Statistics (U.S. Department of Education) · 2003

    “Total fall enrollment\6\ .....\|\3\ 52,286\|\3\ 115,817\|\3\ 156,756\| 237,592\|\3\ 355,213\| 597,880\| 1,100,737\| 1,494,203\| 2,659,021\| 3,639,847\| 8,004,660\| 11,569,899\| 13,538,560\| 14,791,224\| 15,927,987”
  4. E4 The expansion of American higher education Burke, Colin B. (in K. H. Jarausch, ed., The transformation of higher learning 1860-1930, Klett-Cotta) · 1982

    “Enrollments at Colleges and professional schools increased twentysix-fold between 1800 and 1860”
  5. E5 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics · January 1993

    “Between 1899– 1900 and 1909–10, enrollment rose by 50 percent. In the following decade, enrollment rose by 68 percent, and between 1919–20 and 1929–30, enrollment rose by 84 percent.”

Reasoning

E1 and E3 quote an NCES 'Total fall enrollment' row running from 52,286 to over 14.7 million, but the quoted rows do not label the year each column refers to. Under the criteria they cannot fix the 1870–2000 ratio. E5 gives only decade percentage increases for 1900–1930, and E2/E4 address the 19th-century baseline and earlier growth without end-period totals. The evidence given does not establish the enrollment ratio over the specified period.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “The number of college students has increased one hundred fold.” (said January 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3a1987fc145d, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3a1987fc145d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

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    More and more people from more backgrounds, including third world countries in Africa and South America, now participate in technological advances than previously.

  2. Mostly true Factual 9 July 2024
    “These new forms of solar and wind don’t use any of that.”

    New forms of solar and wind do not use oil and coal or add carbon dioxide.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2024
    “We actually have 10,000 times more sunlight that falls on the Earth than we need to meet all of our energy needs.”

    10,000 times more sunlight falls on Earth than needed to meet all energy needs.

  4. Mostly true Factual 29 March 2024
    “we make 10 times as much in constant dollars as we did 100 years ago.”

    People today earn about 10 times as much in constant dollars as 100 years ago.

  5. Resolved false Factual January 2001
    “These projections actually assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years!”

    The projections being discussed assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.