The projections being discussed assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years.

Judge against the Social Security Trustees' projections current in January 2001 (the 2000 Trustees Report, intermediate assumptions), or other official Social Security projections if the context points to them. True: the projections assumed a fixed growth rate of 3.5% per year over roughly 50 years for the economic measure Kurzweil refers to. Mostly true: the assumed rate was about 3.5% (within about 0.2 points) or nearly constant over the period. Mostly false: a 3.5% figure exists but applies to a different variable or a shorter period, or the rate was not fixed. False: the assumed growth rates were materially different, for example well below 3.5% and declining.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 2001 OASDI Trustees Report Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary · 19 March 2001

   “For alternative II, the average annual growth in real GDP is projected to be 2.4 percent over the short-range projection period (2000-10), a slower rate than the 3.1 percent average observed over the historical 30-year period (1969-99).”

2. E2 2001 OASDI Trustees Report Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary · 19 March 2001

   “By 2075, the growth in real GDP slows to about 1.6 percent, due to the assumed ultimate percent changes of 0.2, 1.5, and -0.1 for total employment, productivity, and average hours worked, respectively.”

3. E3 2001 OASDI Trustees Report Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary · 19 March 2001

   “Thus, the assumed ultimate annual growth rates in average covered wages are 3.8, 4.3, and 4.8 percent for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively.”

4. E4 Out of the Box - The American Prospect The American Prospect · 19 December 2001

   “Under the actuary's current assumptions, the U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of only 1.6 percent in the long term.”

The Trustees' intermediate (alternative II) projections from early 2001 assume real GDP growth of 2.4 percent for 2000-10, slowing to about 1.6 percent by 2075 (E1, E2). This is well below 3.5 percent and declining, not fixed. An independent account later in 2001 likewise describes the actuary's long-term growth assumption as 1.6 percent (E4). The only figure near 3.5 percent is the 4.3 percent ultimate nominal covered-wage growth, which is a different variable (E3); the evidence comes from the 2001 report, issued two months after the claim, rather than the 2000 report named in the criteria.