In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge at 31 December 2017. The condition is that there is no macroeconomic meltdown in 2017. If a widely recognized macroeconomic crisis occurred in 2017, the condition fails and the claim should be judged mostly false at most, with a note. Otherwise: True: YC or reliable reporting states that the combined valuation of YC alumni companies passed $100 billion during 2017. Mostly true: the figure reported for end-2017 or at the 2017 milestone is $100 billion or more, but the exact crossing date is unclear within the year. Mostly false: the $100 billion mark was passed only after 2017 (even early 2018), or the 2017 figure was close but below it (for example $85–99 billion). False: the reported 2017 total was well below $100 billion (under $85 billion).
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Y Combinator says its companies are on target for $100B total valuation Fast Company · 16 February 2017
“It expects those companies to have a combined $100 billion valuation this year.”
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E2 YC Summer 2017 Stats | Y Combinator Y Combinator · 21 August 2017 Own record
“The total market cap of all YC companies is over $85B.”
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E3 Timeline of Y Combinator - Timelines Timelines (issarice.com wiki) · 28 June 2019
“YC reaches US$100 billion in market value for their portfolio of 1867 startups they’ve invested in since 2005.”
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E4 YC Alumni Go Big: The 15 Most Valuable Y Combinator-Backed Startups Crunchbase News · 26 February 2018
“According to its website YC companies have valuations that combined total more than $80 billion.”
Reasoning
The evidence gives only lower bounds for YC companies' combined valuation: over $85B in August 2017 [E2] and more than $80B per YC's website as cited in February 2018 [E4]. The $100 billion milestone in [E3] has no date. None of the evidence shows whether the $100 billion mark was passed during 2017 or after it.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown.” (said 1 January 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_35fde14925f9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_35fde14925f9
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
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