ClaimsSam Altman

“This year, assuming there is not a macroeconomic meltdown, we expect the total valuation of companies that have gone through our program to surpass $100 billion.”

Sam Altman, President of YC Group, in YC annual letter 1 January 2017 2017 YC Annual Letter (Sam Altman's blog) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge at 31 December 2017. The condition is that there is no macroeconomic meltdown in 2017. If a widely recognized macroeconomic crisis occurred in 2017, the condition fails and the claim should be judged mostly false at most, with a note. Otherwise: True: YC or reliable reporting states that the combined valuation of YC alumni companies passed $100 billion during 2017. Mostly true: the figure reported for end-2017 or at the 2017 milestone is $100 billion or more, but the exact crossing date is unclear within the year. Mostly false: the $100 billion mark was passed only after 2017 (even early 2018), or the 2017 figure was close but below it (for example $85–99 billion). False: the reported 2017 total was well below $100 billion (under $85 billion).

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Y Combinator says its companies are on target for $100B total valuation Fast Company · 16 February 2017

    “It expects those companies to have a combined $100 billion valuation this year.”
  2. E2 YC Summer 2017 Stats | Y Combinator Y Combinator · 21 August 2017 Own record

    “The total market cap of all YC companies is over $85B.”
  3. E3 Timeline of Y Combinator - Timelines Timelines (issarice.com wiki) · 28 June 2019

    “YC reaches US$100 billion in market value for their portfolio of 1867 startups they’ve invested in since 2005.”
  4. E4 YC Alumni Go Big: The 15 Most Valuable Y Combinator-Backed Startups Crunchbase News · 26 February 2018

    “According to its website YC companies have valuations that combined total more than $80 billion.”

Reasoning

The evidence gives only lower bounds for YC companies' combined valuation: over $85B in August 2017 [E2] and more than $80B per YC's website as cited in February 2018 [E4]. The $100 billion milestone in [E3] has no date. None of the evidence shows whether the $100 billion mark was passed during 2017 or after it.

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown.” (said 1 January 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_35fde14925f9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_35fde14925f9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Sam Altman, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Sam Altman

  1. Mostly true Prediction 9 August 2025
    “And it’s going to be sad because GPT-5 is going to launch and there’s going to be another big spike in demand and we’re not going to be able to serve it.”

    After GPT-5 launches there will be another big spike in demand that OpenAI will not be able to serve.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 21 December 2024
    “on many coding tasks, o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction!”

    On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 5 January 2019
    “AGI will feel within reach to many people in the industry”

    By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 5 January 2019
    “We will get net-gain nuclear fusion working at prototype scale”

    By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2017
    “I believe her.”

    Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.