Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would still be working at his current job at the end of 2018.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
Judge whether the event happened; the 90% probability is not part of the test. 'Current job' means the position Scott Alexander held in January 2018. True: he was still in that same position on 31 December 2018. Mostly true: he was with the same employer in a slightly changed role. False: he had left that job or employer before the end of 2018, as shown by his own scoring of his 2018 predictions or by dated accounts of his employment.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Update On My Situation Slate Star Codex (Scott Alexander's blog) · 11 September 2020 Own record
“I had a talk with my employer and we came to a mutual agreement that I would gradually transition away from working there.”
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E2 Scott Alexander EA Forum topic wiki
“Before establishing his own practice, Lorien Psychiatry, Alexander worked at LifeStance Health (formerly Pacific Coast Psychiatric Associates) and served as Senior Health Researcher of MetaMed, a medical consulting company.”
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E3 About - Astral Codex Ten Astral Codex Ten · 30 August 2020 Own record
“I’m a doctor on the US West Coast, currently working on new models for mental health care at Lorien Psychiatry.”
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E4 September 2020 – Slate Star Codex Slate Star Codex · 11 September 2020 Own record
“I have a day job and SSC gets free hosting, so don't feel pressured to contribute.”
Reasoning
E1, a September 2020 blog post, says Scott Alexander agreed with his employer to gradually leave his job. That suggests he still had a job in 2020, but it does not name the employer or show that it was the job he held in January 2018. E2, an undated independent wiki entry, lists his past employers without dates, so it cannot place him in any position on 31 December 2018. E3 and E4 are also from 2020 and do not cover 2018. None of the evidence gives his own scoring of the 2018 prediction or a dated account of his job at the end of 2018.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would still be working at his current job at the end of 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_351cc0717c7a, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_351cc0717c7a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Resolved true
“I actually remember and grade these predictions publicly sometime in the year 2023: 90%”
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Mostly true
“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”
The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.
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Mostly true
“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”
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Mostly true
“In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”
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Resolved true
“So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.