ClaimsPeter Thiel

“Adam Smith has this metaphor in the 19th century of a pin factory, where you're manufacturing pins and there are 100 people in the pin factory and they're all doing different things and nobody knows how to make a pin anymore.”

Peter Thiel, interviewee 18 November 2024 Apocalypse Now? Peter Thiel On Ancient Prophecies And Modern Tech (Hoover Institution) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Adam Smith used a pin factory metaphor, in the 19th century, of 100 people doing different tasks where nobody knows how to make a pin.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge against the text of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations (Book I, Chapter 1) and its publication date. The parts to check are: (1) Smith used a pin factory example of the division of labour, (2) it dates from the 19th century, (3) it involves about 100 people, and (4) it makes the point that nobody knows how to make a whole pin. True: all four hold. Mostly true: the pin factory example exists and makes the point of (4), but one minor detail is off: the century (the claim says 19th) or the number of workers. Mixed: the pin factory example exists, but two of the details (century, worker count, or the 'nobody knows how to make a pin' point) do not match Smith's text. Mostly false: Smith did use a pin factory example of the division of labour, but the century, the worker count and the 'nobody can make a pin' point all misdescribe it. False: Smith never used a pin factory example.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Chapter I | Adam Smith Works Adam Smith Works · 1 January 2017

    “To take an example, therefore, *19 from a very trifling manufacture; but one in which the division of labour has been very often taken notice of, the trade of the pin-maker”
  2. E2 Chapter I | Adam Smith Works Adam Smith Works · 1 January 2017

    “I have seen a small manufactory of this kind where ten men only were employed, and where some of them consequently performed two or three distinct operations.”
  3. E3 Chapter I | Adam Smith Works Adam Smith Works · 1 January 2017

    “the important business of making a pin is, in this manner, divided into about eighteen distinct operations”
  4. E4 Adam Smith and Pin-making: Some Inconvenient Truths - Conversable Economist Conversable Economist (blog, Timothy Taylor) · 23 August 2022

    “But those who specialize in this area have pointed that Smith’s example was based on second- and third-hand reporting, while actual studies of pin-making in the 18th century suggest that it may not be a great example of the gains from division of labor.”

Reasoning

The evidence confirms that Smith used a pin-making example of the division of labour [E1, E3] and shows a worker count of ten, not about 100 [E2]. None of the evidence gives the publication date of Smith's text, or shows or rules out the 'nobody knows how to make a pin' point, so it does not establish the two mismatches that a mixed verdict requires.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “Adam Smith used a pin factory metaphor, in the 19th century, of 100 people doing different tasks where nobody knows how to make a pin.” (said 18 November 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2bf8917e7e37, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2bf8917e7e37

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Peter Thiel, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Peter Thiel

  1. Mostly true Factual 18 November 2024
    “But if tech means producing more with less, then we should be seeing dramatic economic progress, we don't.”

    If technology means producing more with less, there should be dramatic economic progress, but there has not been, and millennials are not dramatically better off than their boomer parents.

  2. Mostly true Factual 8 October 2024
    “I tend to measure it in things like these economic terms in the way that the average millennial is having a tougher time than their boomer parents at the same point in life.”

    The average millennial is having a tougher time economically than their boomer parents did at the same point in life.

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 November 2022
    “California is not poor.”

    California is not a poor state.

  4. Mostly true Factual 9 November 2022
    “The average California government worker gets paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.”

    The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.

  5. Mostly true Factual 7 February 2020
    “We weren't deeply connected to the Soviet Union.”

    The US economy was not deeply connected to the Soviet Union's during the Cold War.

All of them

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