The decline of violence applies across genocide, war, rioting, homicide and the treatment of children and animals.

The test is whether long-run historical evidence (as of 2007) shows declines in each of: genocide, war, rioting, homicide, violence against children and cruelty to animals. True: the evidence shows a long-run decline in all of these. Mostly true: there are declines in nearly all of them, with a minor exception or caveat (e.g. weaker data for rioting or genocide). Mixed: about half of the categories show long-run declines and the others do not, or the evidence for them is disputed. Mostly false: only a few categories show declines and the claim generalises from them. False: the evidence shows no decline, or shows rises, for most categories.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed. Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “Thorough source criticism, however, raises serious doubts about the decline thesis having any substantial empirical foundation.”

2. E2 Statistical sightings of better angels: Analysing the distribution of battle-deaths in interstate conflict over time Journal of Peace Research (SAGE) · March 2020

   “Clauset (2017, 2018) examines the CoW data discussed below, models the size of interstate wars with power laws, and finds that he cannot reject the null hypothesis of no change.”

3. E3 Statistical sightings of better angels: Analysing the distribution of battle-deaths in interstate conflict over time Journal of Peace Research (SAGE) · March 2020

   “Our statistical sightings of better angels indicate that 1950 represents the most likely change-point in the battle-deaths series – the point in time where the battle-deaths distribution might have changed for the better.”

4. E4 Genocides are Disappearing HumanProgress.org · 29 March 2023

   “The global genocide death rate last peaked at 2 per 100,000 in 2004. Since 2005, it stood at zero.”

5. E5 Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed. Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “Thorough source criticism, however, raises serious doubts about the decline thesis having any substantial empirical foundation.”

6. E6 Statistical sightings of better angels: Analysing the distribution of battle-deaths in interstate conflict over time Journal of Peace Research (SAGE) · 20 February 2020

   “Previous research has found this series of wars to be stationary, with no apparent change over time.”

7. E7 Statistical sightings of better angels: Analysing the distribution of battle-deaths in interstate conflict over time Journal of Peace Research (SAGE) · 20 February 2020

   “Our statistical sightings of better angels indicate that 1950 represents the most likely change-point in the battle-deaths series – the point in time where the battle-deaths distribution might have changed for the better.”

8. E8 MODERNIZATION, SELF-CONTROL AND LETHAL VIOLENCE: The Long-term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective British Journal of Criminology (Manuel Eisner) · 2001

   “The results confirm, first, that homicide rates have declined in Europe over several centuries.”

9. E9 MODERNIZATION, SELF-CONTROL AND LETHAL VIOLENCE: The Long-term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective British Journal of Criminology (Manuel Eisner) · 2001

   “Finally, all European countries (with the exception of Finland) have experienced a period of unbroken increase in homicide rates between the early 1960s and the mid-1990s.”

10. E10 The Declining Risk of Death in Battle International Studies Quarterly (Oxford Academic) · 11 September 2006

    “Using revised information on battle deaths from 1900 to 2002 we demonstrate that the risk of death in battle by no means followed a flat line, but rather declined significantly after World War II and again after the end of the Cold War.”

11. E11 Human Security Brief 2006 (pre-publication text) Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia (with UCDP data)

    “cases of genocide and politicide declined by 90% between 1989 and 2005.”

The evidence supports a long-run decline in European homicide over centuries [E8], with a rise from the 1960s to the 1990s [E9]. For war the evidence is disputed: one study finds a significantly lower risk of death in battle after WWII [E10], earlier research found the interstate war series stationary [E2, E6], and a 2020 study finds 1950 the most likely change-point at which the battle-deaths distribution might have changed for the better [E3]. The genocide evidence available as of 2007 shows a 90% decline in cases of genocide and politicide between 1989 and 2005 but does not cover a longer period [E11], and none of the evidence addresses rioting, violence against children or cruelty to animals. A broad reassessment also questions the empirical basis of the decline thesis [E1], so the evidence does not settle the claim across the categories the criteria require.