With more than 60 elections around the world in 2024, the chance that at least one would be swayed by deepfakes is high.

'Swayed' means deepfakes changed or materially affected the outcome of an election. Deepfakes merely circulating is not enough. True: credible post-election analyses (from academics, election monitors, electoral authorities or courts) conclude that deepfake content changed or materially affected the result of at least one national or major election held in 2024, for example an election annulled or its result attributed partly to deepfake disinformation. Mostly true: such analyses find a significant deepfake influence on at least one 2024 election's outcome, but the attribution is disputed or deepfakes were one of several named factors. Mixed: deepfakes were widespread in some 2024 elections and credible sources report effects on voters, but none conclude the outcome was affected. Mostly false: deepfakes were documented in 2024 elections, but analyses found little or no measurable effect on voters or results. False: reviews of the 2024 elections conclude that deepfakes had no meaningful effect on any outcome, or that they were negligible.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 [RO] Annulment of the electoral process for the election of the President of Romania in 2024 - IRIS Merlin IRIS Merlin (European Audiovisual Observatory), article by Galina Dobrescu, Romanian Radio Broadcasting Company · January 2025

   “The Court finds that the electoral process was seriously affected by vote rigging, the distortion of equal opportunities for electoral contestants and the improper use of digital technologies and artificial intelligence.”

2. E2 AI-Enabled Influence Operations: Threat Analysis of the 2024 UK and European Elections Centre for Emerging Technology and Security (CETaS), Alan Turing Institute · September 2024

   “Similar to other elections we analysed in our first Briefing Paper, the UK, French and EU elections demonstrated no evidence that AI content affected specific election results.”

3. E3 AI and the 2024 Elections - Schneier on Security Schneier on Security (Bruce Schneier, co-written with Nathan E. Sanders; originally in The Conversation) · 4 December 2024

   “This kind of thing happened many times in 2024, but it’s unclear if any of it had any real effect.”

4. E4 TikTok and the Romanian elections: A stress test for DSA enforcement - DSA Observatory DSA Observatory · 20 December 2024

   “We also can’t know if more robust or proactive measures would have changed the election result.”

E1 reports that Romania's Constitutional Court annulled the 2024 presidential election. It found the process "seriously affected" by vote rigging, unequal opportunities and "improper use of digital technologies and artificial intelligence." That names AI only as one of several factors, and the quote does not identify deepfake content as what swayed the result. E4 says it cannot be known whether stronger measures would have changed the Romanian outcome. E2 found no evidence that AI content affected the UK, French or EU election results, and E3 says AI misinformation was common in 2024 but its effect is unclear. Deepfakes and AI content were widespread and drew institutional concern, but no evidence here clearly finds that deepfakes changed a 2024 outcome.