ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“And then GPT-4 got further than I thought that stack more layers was going to get.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 6 April 2023 Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Factual AI capabilities

GPT-4 got further than Eliezer Yudkowsky had expected simply stacking more layers would get.

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Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Reasoning

Concerns Yudkowsky's own prior expectations, which only he can confirm.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “GPT-4 got further than Eliezer Yudkowsky had expected simply stacking more layers would get.” (said 6 April 2023). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_2174a02339dd, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2174a02339dd

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Resolved true Factual September 2025
    “We learned that that's false, but we did not learn that you can have a thing that can redesign a tree and build an AI much smarter than itself, that builds an AI much smarter than itself, and that…”

    No AI has yet been shown to redesign a tree and build a much smarter AI that builds a still smarter AI; that scenario has not occurred.

  2. Mostly true Factual 25 March 2024
    “I was a passionate noticer of the human brain not being homogenous, and was therefore unpleasantly surprised by transformers scaling as well as they did.”

    Yudkowsky was unpleasantly surprised by how well transformers scaled, having believed the human brain is not homogeneous.

  3. Mostly true Factual 6 April 2023
    “First of all, you realize in principle that the task of minimizing losses on predicting human text does not stop when you’re as smart as a human, right?”

    In principle, the task of minimizing loss on predicting human text does not stop being improvable once a system is as smart as a human.

  4. Mostly true Factual 30 March 2023
    “Transformers are the main thing like that.”

    Transformers were the main architectural change that gave a non-linear jump in performance, compared with earlier approaches such as RNNs.

  5. Mostly true Factual 30 March 2023
    “Because the basic paradigm of machine learning that we are presently operating under is that you can have the loss function, but only for things you can evaluate.”

    The basic paradigm of machine learning currently in use is that a loss function can be defined only for things that can be evaluated.

All of them

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