ClaimsVinod Khosla

“almost certainly, the winning battery in 15 years is one that has very low probability of working in people's eyes today.”

Vinod Khosla, investor, interview answer 23 December 2010 Vinod Khosla: Searching for the Radical Solution (Scientific American) archived copy

Prediction Technology

Almost certainly, the winning battery technology in 15 years will be one that people today see as having a very low probability of working.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Depends on what people think is low probability; too vague to test.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “Almost certainly, the winning battery technology in 15 years will be one that people today see as having a very low probability of working.” (said 23 December 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_1f4b2aaac365, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1f4b2aaac365

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Vinod Khosla, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Vinod Khosla

  1. Resolved false Prediction 23 December 2010
    “Now almost certainly, the traditional lithium ion bulk batteries will not be around in 15 years.”

    Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 23 December 2010
    “The Chevy Volt, which is a good car, is expected by 2012, to ship 40,000 units.”

    The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 28 September 2007
    “I believe 50 million acres of land in this country could supply all our biofuel needs.”

    Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 September 2007
    “It would probably add about 2 cents a kilowatt hour to the price of coal, depending upon the price of carbon.”

    Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 28 September 2007
    “Not only that, even if Germany switched over completely to photovoltaics, unless India and China adopted them, we are not going to see a change in the trajectory of climate change.”

    Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them.

All of them

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