ClaimsPeter Thiel

“You know, its per capita GDP is close to $10,000, which was sort of the point where democracy was supposed to start taking over, and it seems to have, if anything, been going the opposite direction.”

Peter Thiel, interviewee 7 February 2020 The World According to Thiel (Hoover Institution)

Factual Economics and markets

China's per capita GDP is close to $10,000.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2020-02-07 against the latest figure then available, China's 2019 nominal GDP per capita in US dollars (World Bank/IMF/NBS). True: the figure is within about ±10% of $10,000 (roughly $9,000–11,000). Mostly true: within about ±15%. Mostly false: within about ±25% but outside ±15%. False: further off than that. Use nominal USD; if only PPP is quoted, note that PPP (about $16,000+) would not support the claim.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 China's economy expands 6.1% in 2019, in line with official target english.www.gov.cn (Chinese government portal; article reports NBS figures) · 18 January 2020

    “China's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the past year stood at 70,892 yuan or $10,276, breaking through the $10,000 mark for the first time in history”
  2. E2 China's GDP per capita passed $10,000 in 2019, but what does this mean? CGTN · 17 January 2020

    “China's GDP per capita reached 70,892 yuan (10,276 U.S. dollars) in 2019, passing the 10,000 U.S. dollars benchmark”

Reasoning

E1 (China's government portal, reporting National Bureau of Statistics figures) and E2 (CGTN) both say China's 2019 GDP per capita was 70,892 yuan, or $10,276. Both were published in January 2020, before the claim was made. That figure is within about 3% of $10,000, well inside the ±10% range the criteria set for true. Both sources pass on official Chinese statistics, but neither comes from the subject, and they agree.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “China's per capita GDP is close to $10,000.” (said 7 February 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_1c95ea9a969c, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1c95ea9a969c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Peter Thiel

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  2. Mostly true Factual 8 October 2024
    “I tend to measure it in things like these economic terms in the way that the average millennial is having a tougher time than their boomer parents at the same point in life.”

    The average millennial is having a tougher time economically than their boomer parents did at the same point in life.

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 November 2022
    “California is not poor.”

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  4. Mostly true Factual 9 November 2022
    “The average California government worker gets paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.”

    The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.

  5. Mostly true Factual 7 February 2020
    “We weren't deeply connected to the Soviet Union.”

    The US economy was not deeply connected to the Soviet Union's during the Cold War.

All of them

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