Hurricane Sandy helped several climate-change-denier congressmen lose their seats in the 2012 election.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Factual claim about the November 2012 US elections. It has two parts: (a) several (at least two or three) members of Congress with a record of denying or dismissing climate change lost their seats in 2012, and (b) Hurricane Sandy helped cause those losses. True: at least two or three such incumbents lost, and credible analysis, polling or reporting links their defeats at least partly to Sandy (for example in Sandy-affected districts, with Sandy and climate change shown to be an election factor). Mostly true: several climate-skeptic members lost, and Sandy is credibly linked to at least one or two of those defeats, but not to all. Mixed: climate-skeptic members did lose, but evidence of Sandy's role is speculative or weak. Mostly false: such members lost, but there is no credible evidence that Sandy contributed (a coincidence presented as a cause), or only one such loss occurred. False: no climate-denying members of Congress lost seats in 2012, or the evidence shows Sandy played no part.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Election Outcome Changes the Climate and Energy Conversation in Congress - Inside Climate News Inside Climate News · 27 November 2012
“Eleven of the so-called “dirty dozen,” led by GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, were defeated, including Reps. Dan Lungren, R-Calif., and Joe Walsh, R-Ill., and Democratic Rep. Tim Holden of Pennsylvania.”
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E2 Election Outcome Changes the Climate and Energy Conversation in Congress - Inside Climate News Inside Climate News · 27 November 2012
“Four of the defeated politicians, as well as Benishek, were also on the League’s “flat earth five” list of climate deniers.”
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E3 Election Outcome Changes the Climate and Energy Conversation in Congress - Inside Climate News Inside Climate News · 27 November 2012
“Among those who lost was Rep. Francisco Canseco, a Texas Republican who had fought EPA regulations he said were “based on reportedly manufactured global warming data.””
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E4 2012 – Siena Research Institute Siena Research Institute · 3 December 2012
“Two-thirds of Voters Say Recent Storms Demonstrate Climate Change”
Reasoning
Part (a) is supported. Inside Climate News reports that four defeated politicians were on the League of Conservation Voters' "flat earth five" list of climate deniers (E2). It also names Rep. Francisco Canseco, who opposed EPA regulations he said were based on "reportedly manufactured global warming data", was among those who lost (E3). Part (b) has only weak support: no evidence item links any of these defeats to Hurricane Sandy. The Siena poll finding that two-thirds of voters see recent storms as demonstrating climate change (E4) is indirect and does not tie Sandy to any particular election result.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Hurricane Sandy helped several climate-change-denier congressmen lose their seats in the 2012 election.” (said 3 December 2012). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_1bdaff78df54, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1bdaff78df54
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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