Death rates from war and homicide today are a fraction of what they were in previous decades and centuries.

Judge as of 2011-10-06. TRUE: per-capita war death rates (e.g. battle deaths per 100,000 worldwide, from PRIO/UCDP) and homicide rates (e.g. in Western Europe and other regions with long data series) around 2000–2011 are a small fraction of levels in earlier decades (e.g. the mid-20th century) and earlier centuries (e.g. medieval or early-modern homicide rates). MOSTLY TRUE: both declines hold against centuries and against most earlier decades, but some comparisons against recent decades show only modest falls, or some regions or periods are exceptions. MIXED: one measure (war or homicide) clearly fits and the other does not, or the claim holds against centuries but not against previous decades. MOSTLY FALSE: the rates are lower only in selected regions or periods, and globally or against recent decades they are similar or higher, so the claim overgeneralizes a narrow finding. FALSE: the data show that 2011-era rates of war deaths and homicide are not substantially lower than in earlier decades and centuries.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime Manuel Eisner (Cambridge Violence Research Centre PDF) · 22 August 2026

   “Taken together, these data first confirm the Europe-wide massive drop—roughly by a factor of 10:1 to 50:1 over the period from the fifteenth to the twentieth century—in lethal interpersonal violence”

2. E2 Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime Manuel Eisner (Cambridge Violence Research Centre PDF) · 22 August 2026

   “By around 1950, most European countries experienced their lowest historically known levels of homicide rates. Since then, an increasing trend has prevailed.”

3. E3 War and Peace Our World in Data · 20 March 2024

   “While every war is a tragedy, the data suggests that fewer people died in conflicts in recent decades than in most of the 20th century.”

E1 reports that homicide rates in Europe fell roughly 10:1 to 50:1 between the fifteenth and twentieth centuries, which supports the claim when today is compared with earlier centuries. E2 says European homicide rates reached their lowest known levels around 1950 and have risen since. So for homicide in Europe, E2 does not support the claim that today's rates are a fraction of those in recent decades. E3 says fewer people died in conflicts in recent decades than in most of the 20th century, which broadly supports the war part, though it gives no per-capita figures. The claim holds against earlier centuries but not for homicide against recent decades, which matches the criteria for a mixed verdict.