ClaimsScott Alexander

“AI can play arbitrary computer games at human level.”

Scott Alexander, blogger 20 February 2023 Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Prediction AI capabilities

He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game.” (said 20 February 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_1abe18c9262b, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1abe18c9262b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 20 February 2023
    “I expect scaling to continue to produce gains, but this is less obvious than it’s been the past five years.”

    Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies.

All of them

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