Religious people organize and vote, giving them electoral clout out of proportion to their numbers.

Judge as of 2018, in the context Pinker was speaking about (presumably the US). TRUE: survey or validated-voter data (e.g. Pew, PRRI, CCES) show that religious people turn out and organise politically at higher rates than non-religious people, so that their share of the electorate exceeds their share of the population. MOSTLY TRUE: the over-representation is real but small, or holds only for some religious groups (e.g. white evangelicals). MIXED: turnout differences are mixed across groups or elections, and over-representation is unclear. MOSTLY FALSE: religious people's share of voters roughly matches their population share, with only minor or inconsistent differences. FALSE: the data show religious people are not over-represented, or are under-represented, among voters.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 An examination of the 2016 electorate, based on validated voters Pew Research Center · 9 August 2018

   “White evangelical Protestants, who constituted one out of every five voters, consistently have been among the strongest supporters of Republican candidates and supported Trump by a 77% to 16% margin.”

2. E2 Religious 'nones' could shake up American politics — but many roadblocks stand in their way Deseret News · 6 March 2018

   “In 2016, religiously unaffiliated Americans, or "nones," represented 21 percent of registered voters, one percentage point more than white evangelical Christians. However, they only accounted for 15 percent of actual voters, according to Pew Research Center and national exit polls.”

3. E3 Rethinking Religion and Political Participation: The Case of Voting Among Religiously Unaffiliated Americans Sociology of Religion (Oxford Academic), author Evan Stewart · 1 June 2023

   “One case of this question is a long-observed “secular voting gap” where religiously unaffiliated Americans are less likely to vote than their affiliated counterparts.”

4. E4 Rethinking Religion and Political Participation: The Case of Voting Among Religiously Unaffiliated Americans Sociology of Religion (Oxford Academic), author Evan Stewart · 1 June 2023

   “I find estimates of the secular voting gap are attenuated by demographic controls.”

I rated this mostly true: the evidence shows religious Americans were over-represented among voters around 2018, but only modestly. In 2016, religiously unaffiliated Americans made up 21 percent of registered voters but only 15 percent of actual voters (E2). By implication, the affiliated made up about 79 percent of registered voters and about 85 percent of those who voted. A peer-reviewed study confirms a long-observed "secular voting gap", with the unaffiliated less likely to vote (E3), and E1 shows white evangelicals were about one in five voters. However, the study finds that estimates of the gap are attenuated by demographic controls (E4), and no item directly shows higher rates of political organising.