OpenAI will continue in 2025 to preview products months or years before they are solid and widely available at an accessible price.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged at the end of 2025. True: during 2025, OpenAI previewed or announced at least one major product or capability that was still not generally available at an accessible price (e.g. not limited to high-priced tiers, waitlists or limited regions) several months later, or that was released in a state widely reported as unreliable. This must reflect a continuing pattern rather than a single case. Mostly true: the pattern held, but the delays were mostly a few months rather than longer, or it applied to only a single significant product. Mixed: some previews matched this pattern, while most 2025 products shipped broadly and affordably soon after announcement. Mostly false: OpenAI generally released products widely and affordably close to their announcement, with only minor exceptions. False: in 2025, OpenAI's products were consistently launched at or near announcement, broadly available and affordable.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Introducing Operator OpenAI · 23 January 2025
“A research preview of an agent that can use its own browser to perform tasks for you. Available to Pro users in the U.S.”
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E2 Introducing Codex - OpenAI OpenAI · 16 May 2025
“Available to ChatGPT Pro, Business, and Enterprise users today, and Plus users soon.”
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E3 Sam Altman says that OpenAI's capacity issues will cause product delays | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 1 April 2025
“In an effort to ease its capacity issues, OpenAI delayed the release of the image-generation tool for free ChatGPT users and temporarily disabled video generation for new users of Sora”
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E4 OpenAI delays the release of its open model, again | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 11 July 2025
“OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Friday the company is delaying the release of its open model, which was already pushed back a month earlier this summer.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows that several OpenAI products in 2025 were restricted to some users or delayed when they launched [E1][E2][E3][E4]. It does not show whether any of them was still unavailable at an accessible price several months later, which the criteria require.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “OpenAI will continue in 2025 to preview products months or years before they are solid and widely available at an accessible price.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_163807550a0c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_163807550a0c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Gary Marcus
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Mostly true
“Some of its advice will be head-scratchingly bad.”
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Mostly true
“GPT-5 will surely be better, a lot better than GPT-4.”
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Resolved true
“GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”
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Resolved true
“It will still make a significant number of shake-your-head stupid errors, in ways that are hard to fully predict.”
GPT-5 will still make a significant number of obvious errors that are hard to predict.
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Mostly true
“Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.