In a risk scenario, China blockades Taiwan while the US is bogged down in the Ukraine and Middle East wars.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
It describes a hypothetical risk scenario with no horizon, so it cannot be tested.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “In a risk scenario, China blockades Taiwan while the US is bogged down in the Ukraine and Middle East wars.” (said 18 October 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_14d2fd72cc6b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_14d2fd72cc6b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini
-
Resolved true
“China’s not going to take lightly this attempt at full technological and economic containment.”
-
Resolved false
“In a note to my clients this week I made a wide out-of-consensus call that the RN - Le Pen’s party - will win an absolute majority in the current French parliamentary elections (60% probability for…”
-
Mostly false
“As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”
US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).
-
Mostly false
“They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”
-
Resolved false
“So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.