ClaimsScott Alexander

“I will not finish more than 25% of a new novel: 70%”

Scott Alexander, blogger January 2018 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Novel progress is known only to the author.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_0fe94d8a1df9, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0fe94d8a1df9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Resolved true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “I actually remember and grade these predictions publicly sometime in the year 2023: 90%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies.

All of them

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