Pinker cited a prediction by someone like Paul Krugman, the New York Times economics op-ed columnist, that the internet was a big nothingburger and would fizzle.

The test is whether Paul Krugman made a published prediction that the internet would have little lasting impact or would fizzle, and whether he is fairly described as the NYT economics op-ed columnist. TRUE: a verifiable Krugman text (e.g. his 1998 Red Herring piece) predicts the internet's economic impact would be minor or fade, and Krugman was or became the NYT's economics op-ed columnist. The claim's loose wording ('someone like', 'nothingburger') does not have to match the original. MOSTLY TRUE: such a prediction exists, but it was narrower than 'fizzle' (e.g. impact on the economy no greater than the fax machine's) or was published before he joined the NYT, and the gist still holds. MIXED: Krugman's remark was partly sceptical but was plainly framed as tongue-in-cheek or as a narrow point, so 'fizzle' substantially misrepresents it. MOSTLY FALSE: the sceptical prediction came from someone else and was misattributed to Krugman, or Krugman's text says something materially different. FALSE: no Krugman text making any such prediction exists, as shown by the source texts or by a documented fact-check.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Quote Origin: It Will Become Clear That the Internet’s Impact on the Economy Has Been No Greater Than the Fax Machine’s Quote Investigator · 26 October 2023

   “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

2. E2 Did Paul Krugman Say the Internet's Effect on the World Economy Would Be 'No Greater Than the Fax Machine's'? Snopes · 7 June 2018

   “I must have tossed it off quickly (at the time I was mainly focused on the Asian financial crisis!), then later conflated it in my memory with the NYT piece.”

3. E3 In Europe, Great Depression Was Bad; This Is Worse Truthout (reprinting Krugman's New York Times column; NYT author note) · 15 February 2012

   “Paul Krugman joined The New York Times in 1999 as a columnist on the Op-Ed page and continues as a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University.”

4. E4 Paul Krugman: David Henderson Was Right - Econlib Econlib (Library of Economics and Liberty) · 22 November 2014

   “I greatly underestimated the economic impact of IT [Information Technology.] I didn’t really–mid-nineties, I was very skeptical about claims that we were about to have a productivity boom and I was wrong, OK?”

E2 is a Snopes fact-check of whether Krugman said the internet's effect on the economy would be "no greater than the fax machine's." In it, Krugman says he "tossed it off quickly," which accepts that he wrote it. E1 gives the wording: "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." In E4, Krugman says he "greatly underestimated the economic impact of IT," and E3 confirms he joined the New York Times op-ed page as a columnist in 1999. So the prediction exists and he became the NYT columnist, but it was narrower than "fizzle" (it was about economic impact, compared with the fax machine), which matches the "mostly true" criterion.