Amodei guessed that most people would support embryo screening for severe or debilitating mental illness.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2015, using public opinion surveys from around that time (roughly 2010–2020 is acceptable if nothing closer exists). TRUE: representative surveys (US or similar populations) show majority support, above 50%, for embryo or preimplantation genetic screening for severe or serious mental illness, or for serious disease in general where mental illness is clearly included. MOSTLY TRUE: majority support is shown, but the question's wording is slightly different (for example 'serious disease' without naming mental illness) or the sample is somewhat narrower. MIXED: support is around 45–55%, or surveys conflict. MOSTLY FALSE: support is a plurality but under 50%, or a majority only in non-representative samples. FALSE: representative surveys show clear minority support (under about 45%) for such screening.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Public perspectives on the use of preimplantation genetic diagnosis - Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics Springer (Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics) · 11 March 2015
“A majority supported PGD for diseases fatal early in life or those causing lifelong disability (72.9 and 66.7 %, respectively); only 48.0 % supported PGD for diseases that manifest late in life.”
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E2 Public perspectives on the use of preimplantation genetic diagnosis - Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics Springer (Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics) · 11 March 2015
“Doctors should be able to perform PGD to screen for diseases that cause lifelong disability such as mental retardation or deafness.”
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E3 Chapter 3: Attitudes and Beliefs on Science and Technology Topics Pew Research Center · 29 January 2015
“But opinion about this circumstance is closely divided, with about half of adults (50%) saying genetic changes for this purpose would be taking medical advances too far and a nearly equal share of 46% saying this would be an appropriate use of medical advances.”
Reasoning
E1 and E2 show 66.7% support for PGD for diseases causing lifelong disability, illustrated by mental retardation or deafness rather than mental illness. However, nothing in the evidence shows whether that survey sample was representative, which the criteria need in order to tell mostly true from mostly false. E3 is not shown to concern embryo screening.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Amodei guessed that most people would support embryo screening for severe or debilitating mental illness.” (said 17 August 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_092b16db3cc7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_092b16db3cc7
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.