In a year or two (from 2023), AI model consciousness might become a very real concern.

Judge at end of 2025. The claim does not say models will be conscious. It says that by 2024–2025 whether AI models are conscious or have moral status 'might' become a very real concern, meaning one taken seriously in practice. True: by 31 Dec 2025, credible evidence shows the question was treated as a live, practical concern by major actors. Examples: a frontier AI lab starting a formal model-welfare or consciousness research programme or acting on that basis, serious research reports or academic work by recognised researchers saying current or near-term models may warrant moral consideration, or sustained mainstream policy or media debate treating it as a real issue. Mostly true: such concern appeared by 2025 but was limited to one or two isolated actors or statements, with little wider uptake. Mixed: substantial attention appeared, but mainly as speculation, with no institution acting on it. Mostly false: the concern became real only after 2025, or was voiced only on the fringes. False: dated evidence from 2025 or soon after shows the question was still widely dismissed as not a real concern, and no major lab or research body treated it seriously.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Exploring model welfare Anthropic · 24 April 2025 Own record

   “A recent report from world-leading experts—including David Chalmers, arguably the best-known and most respected living philosopher of mind—highlighted the near-term possibility of both consciousness and high degrees of agency in AI systems, and argued that models with these features might deserve moral consideration.”

2. E2 Microsoft AI chief says it's 'dangerous' to study AI consciousness TechCrunch · 21 August 2025

   “a growing number of AI researchers at labs like Anthropic are asking when — if ever — AI models might develop subjective experiences similar to living beings, and if they do, what rights they should have.”

3. E3 A New Way to Test AI for Sentience: Make It Confront Pain Scientific American · 17 January 2025

   “Most AI experts agree that modern generative AI models do not (and maybe never can) have a subjective consciousness despite isolated claims to the contrary.”

4. E4 Anthropic hires its first AI welfare officer 311 Institute (Fanatical Futurist) · 20 June 2025

   “Fish joined Anthropic's alignment science team in September to develop guidelines for how Anthropic and other companies should approach the issue.”

Independent reporting shows that by 2025 researchers at Anthropic were asking whether AI models might develop subjective experiences and what rights they should have (E2), and that Anthropic had brought in a staff member to develop guidelines on how companies should approach the issue (E4). The issue also drew public pushback: Microsoft's AI chief said that studying AI consciousness is 'dangerous' (E2). Anthropic's own post cites a report by recognised researchers, including David Chalmers, arguing that near-term models might deserve moral consideration (E1). E3 notes that most experts still reject the idea that current models are conscious, but the claim was that the question would become a real concern, not that models would be conscious, so the criteria for true are met.