ClaimsElon Musk

“I think it is unlikely.”

Elon Musk, interviewee 27 July 2026 Elon Musk The Economist July 23rd 2026 - Full Interview Transcript (Sozai)

Prediction AI safety and alignment

Asked whether he was sure that humans would no longer be in control in 10 years' time (by 2036), Musk said "I think it is unlikely", and added that if the gap in intelligence were vast, it would be hard to imagine the chimpanzees being in charge.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2036 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Asked whether he was sure that humans would no longer be in control in 10 years' time (by 2036), Musk said "I think it is unlikely", and added that if the gap in intelligence were vast, it would be hard to imagine the chimpanzees being in charge.” (said 27 July 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_0736dd74b4e1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0736dd74b4e1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Elon Musk

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  2. Mostly false Prediction 30 December 2024
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  3. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
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    Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
    “I think there would be demand for that, too.”

    Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
    “Hardware 3 will not be as good as Hardware 4, but I'm confident that Hardware 3 will so far exceed the average -- the safety of the average human.”

    Hardware 3 will far exceed the safety of the average human driver, though not be as good as Hardware 4.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.