ClaimsNate Silver

“Trump’s overall favorability ratings are miserable, about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and they haven’t improved”

Nate Silver, editor in chief, writing on FiveThirtyEight 2015 Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination (FiveThirtyEight)

This quote could not be matched word for word to the source page.

Factual Other

Donald Trump's overall favorability ratings in 2015 are about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and have not improved.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge against national favorability polling of Trump among all adults or registered voters in 2015 at the time of the remark (most likely mid-2015). True: polling averages (e.g., HuffPost Pollster, RCP) or major polls show roughly 25–35% favorable and 55–65% unfavorable, with no meaningful improvement compared with earlier 2015 readings. Mostly true: the figures fit but there was a slight improvement (a few points), or one figure is just outside the range. Mixed: the figures fit but his ratings had clearly improved, or one figure is clearly off while the trend holds. Mostly false: favorability was markedly different (e.g., ~40% favorable) and improving, even though it was net negative. False: favorability was net positive or close to even.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Trump GOP Favorable Image Drops, but Still Positive Gallup · 30 July 2015

    “Meanwhile, Trump's image among all national adults continues to tilt negative, with 31% viewing him favorably and 57% unfavorably, essentially unchanged this month.”
  2. E2 Trump's Image Over Last Year Stable -- and Negative Gallup · 18 July 2016

    “When Gallup began tracking Trump's favorability in July 2015, 31% of Americans viewed him favorably and 57% viewed him unfavorably, leaving 12% who had no opinion.”
  3. E3 Trump's Image Over Last Year Stable -- and Negative Gallup · 18 July 2016

    “Trump's favorable rating was at its highest point of 38% in August 2015.”

Reasoning

Gallup's late-July 2015 release (E1) shows 31% of U.S. adults viewed Trump favorably and 57% unfavorably, "essentially unchanged this month." Both figures fall within the criteria's ranges and show no improvement. Gallup's 2016 retrospective (E2) gives the same July 2015 starting point. However, it also reports that his favorable rating peaked at 38% in August 2015 (E3), slightly outside the range and a few points higher. Because the evidence does not pin down the exact date of the remark, the verdict is mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Donald Trump's overall favorability ratings in 2015 are about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and have not improved.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_03f49dbc3e3b, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_03f49dbc3e3b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nate Silver

  1. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “That will require probing deep into Republican territory, winning at least two states that have become solidly red at the presidential level.”

    Winning the Senate in 2026 would require Democrats to win at least two states that are solidly red at the presidential level.

  2. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “To win the Senate, they’ll need four pickups.2”

    Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026.

  3. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “Obviously, none of this is easy for Democrats — Collins, in particular, survived in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden.”

    Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden.

  4. Mixed Factual 7 November 2024
    “Utah has gradually been getting more purple, between attracting a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being so keen on Trump.”

    Utah has gradually become more politically purple, due to a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being keen on Trump.

  5. Mostly true Factual 7 November 2024
    “The conservatives who leave tend to wind up in Florida and Texas, so those states are getting redder”

    Conservatives leaving blue states tend to move to Florida and Texas, making those states redder, and many polls did not catch up.

All of them

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