ClaimsDario Amodei

“I think people will wake up to both the risks and the benefits to a much more extreme extent than they will before over the next two years.”

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO 28 February 2025 Hard Fork - Anthropic's C.E.O. Dario Amodei on Surviving the A.I. Endgame Transcript (Podscripts (Hard Fork)) archived copy

Prediction Philosophy, ethics and society

Over the next two years, people will wake up to both the risks and benefits of AI to a much more extreme extent than before.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2027-02 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Over the next two years, people will wake up to both the risks and benefits of AI to a much more extreme extent than before.” (said 28 February 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_002b512d6dd7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_002b512d6dd7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Dario Amodei

  1. Resolved true Prediction 8 August 2023
    “and I do think in a year or two, this might be a very real concern.”

    In a year or two (from 2023), AI model consciousness might become a very real concern.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 23 September 2026
    “We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”

    Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2026
    “We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”

    Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”

    Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”

    Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.