ClaimsPeople

Tyler Cowen

Tyler Cowen is an economist, author and commentator who holds the Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and co-founded the Marginal Revolution blog.

775 claims collected, 174 researched, 97 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 75 85

    High confidence, 93 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2004 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 26 unresolvable, 14 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 4 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 31 unresolvable. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 80 (likely 75 to 85, high confidence), from 93 claims: 93 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Tyler Cowen's claims

39 claims

39 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 The World Bank will not vanish but will become much smaller. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Maybe 40 years later, everyone will accept that it is all the AIs, though it will have come about by trick. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 4 Mar 2026 The AI revolution will be the fastest of all technological revolutions in recent world history. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Cowen said he thinks that within ten years the US will be bidding for immigrants, be much more selective, use more market mechanisms and use immigration to raise revenue. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Cowen said his best expectation, offered with some hedging, is that France will eke through. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 NATO will probably morph into something quite different, and whether it survives on paper depends on the US. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 AI and tech companies and the US government will become increasingly intertwined, with neither checking the other. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 There will be many more fake jobs in the economy in future. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 US healthcare spending will eventually reach 30% of GDP or higher. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 AI decision-making will take hold whether or not people accept it, happening by trick if they do not. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 The nonprofit sector will have fake jobs for a very long time to come, and probably many more of them. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Wealth will not be held only by a small group; there will be a lot of wealth for everyone, though the small group will be much wealthier. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 The supply of people wanting to immigrate to the US will dry up, due to lower birth rates elsewhere and improving source countries. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 India and Africa would probably be the next waves. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Cowen said he was worried a bit about the inverted population pyramid, but thinks AI will provide enough of a productivity boost that it "won't bankrupt us." Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Things will be pushed through for somewhat myopic reasons, such as the need to outpace China (which might even be true), and that will be the selling point. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 AIs will build their own institutions rather than a new UN or Bretton Woods. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 The US will keep increasing its healthcare spending. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 The US will remain a nation of immigrants. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Not yet due Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Cowen said he can readily imagine that within 50 years most diseases will have been beaten back and everyone will die of old age or accidents. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Future conflicts will be more like World War One than World War Two. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 4 Mar 2026 In programming, AI will win out and do most of the work, with humans possibly working alongside it. Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Dec 2025 Institutions matter and, in addition to their usual effects, will shape both of the factors Cowen labels #1 and #2 over the longer run. Prediction · 6 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Dec 2024 Cowen guessed that Emergent Ventures winners working on aging will simply help people live to 100, rather than stopping or reversing aging, and he called that still a great investment. Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Dec 2024 Tyler Cowen said that, on their current trajectory, he does not see "that" happening for video games; the surroundings do not say what "that" refers to. Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Dec 2024 Tyler Cowen said he would bet against academic economists being highly influential in the Trump administration, except perhaps in very indirect, roundabout ways. Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Dec 2024 Cowen said he does not think individual humans can live forever. Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Dec 2024 Cowen guessed that there is some natural limit to human lifespan, due to the brain, somewhere between 100 and 120 years. Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Mostly true Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students. Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Mostly true Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education. Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Resolved true Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Prediction 11 Jun 2020 Tyler Cowen said he suspects the equilibrium flow of new monuments will fall, following what he described as a recent decrease in the stock of standing monuments. Prediction · 11 Jun 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Jul 2019 In future, with social media further along as well, the net social surplus from those will be much higher than it is now. Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Jul 2019 On net, social media are more likely to limit the risk of war than to increase it. Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Jul 2019 Productivity growth will come back up again. Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Jul 2019 Cowen predicted that "we" will get much better at "it" in the future; the quoted surroundings do not say what "it" refers to. Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Technology
Mostly true Prediction 13 May 2019 The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States. Prediction · 13 May 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 10 Apr 2006 US public noise to scare Iran will not work, and the US might then feel it must attack to preserve credibility. Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 10 Apr 2006 Iranians might regard a secret US signal as a trick and ignore it. Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
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Tyler Cowen

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“But again, I don’t think it will vanish.”

Tyler Cowen, interviewee 4 March 2026 Forecast 2050 - Tyler Cowen Transcript (Finn Murphy Substack)

The World Bank will not vanish but will become much smaller.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

No horizon given; 'much smaller' undefined.

Cite this claim

Tyler Cowen, “The World Bank will not vanish but will become much smaller.” (said 4 March 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0412150c2fbe, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0412150c2fbe

Claims without a verdict

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