ClaimsPeople

Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and was its CEO until 2017, and is the author of several books including Principles: Life and Work.

827 claims collected, 172 researched, 91 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    77 71 83

    High confidence, 80 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2010 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 33 unresolvable, 4 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    72 56 86

    Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2010 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 41 unresolvable. 3 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Ray Dalio's claims

11 claims

11 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Prediction 10 Jun 2025 If current congressional plans go forward, the US federal deficit will be about 7% of GDP. Prediction · 10 Jun 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 25 Oct 2020 There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020. Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows. Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Algorithms will become part of people's lives. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Technology
Resolved true Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 17 Sep 2015 The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jun 2010 The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
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Ray Dalio

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Prediction Economics and markets

“I think that in the next two years, let's say prior to the next election, there's probably a 40 percent chance of a recession.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee 16 August 2019 CNBC Transcript: Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates - Part I (CNBC)

Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

This is a probabilistic forecast that a US recession had about a 40% chance of starting between August 2019 and the November 3, 2020 election. Resolve on whether a US recession began in that window, as dated by the NBER (peak between August 2019 and November 3, 2020). True: such a recession began, because the elevated risk he flagged materialised. Mixed: no recession began, since he rated that outcome as somewhat more likely (60%) but still flagged an elevated risk that did not materialise. True, mixed and these two cases are the only verdicts that apply.

Evidence

  1. Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement June 8, 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) · 8 June 2020
    “The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession.”

Reasoning

The criteria say the claim resolves true if the NBER dated a US recession peak between August 2019 and November 3, 2020. NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee announced that the economy peaked in February 2020, which marks the start of a recession (E1). That date falls inside the window, so the risk Dalio flagged came about.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election.” (said 16 August 2019). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_e2fb1646e640, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e2fb1646e640

Claims without a verdict

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