ClaimsPeople

Michael Burry

Michael Burry is a widely known investor who founded Scion Capital/Scion Asset Management and writes a paid Substack newsletter, reported by Yahoo Finance to have passed 300,000 subscribers.

593 claims collected, 191 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    74 67 80

    High confidence, 66 factual claims resolved. From 9 documents, 2001 to 2026; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 40 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    62 43 81

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2006 to 2011; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 3 checkable only against their own records. 1 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Michael Burry's claims

30 claims

30 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 30 Oct 2026 Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover. Factual · 30 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 27 Oct 2026 Michael Burry has never said that LLMs would stop improving. Factual · 27 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 24 Oct 2026 Across 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980, October 6, 2026 and March 2000 are the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs by almost any measure. Factual · 24 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 11 Oct 2026 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top. Factual · 11 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 9 Jul 2026 In the same quarter in early 2025, Meta extended its useful server lives to 5.5 years, reducing the depreciation hit to net income by $2.9 billion. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Factual 9 Jul 2026 Intrator's consistent message is that Nvidia chips are rented on successive contracts, so depreciation schedules shorter than 5 or 6 years are ignorant. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Factual 27 Mar 2026 US home equity is a record $35 trillion, nearly double pre-COVID levels. Factual · 27 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 9 Mar 2026 The Headstrong Project was founded in 2012 by a combat veteran. Factual · 9 Mar 2026 Other
Mostly true Factual 12 Feb 2026 As Palantir prepared to go public in August 2020, its board awarded Alex Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options. Factual · 12 Feb 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Nov 2025 Michael Burry is still managing his own money and is active in markets. Factual · 19 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Scion's agreements with counterparties required daily collateral valuation in both directions. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Michael Burry earned a bachelor's degree in economics at UCLA and then an MD at Vanderbilt School of Medicine. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Blue Ocean Re was set up in late 2005 to take advantage of what Burry called an extraordinary pricing ability in the retrocessional reinsurance space. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Burry's main contact at Goldman Sachs was Veronica, a front-end salesperson. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset because all asset-backed derivatives settled in cash. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry left medicine with $145,000 in debt and no assets under management when starting Scion Capital. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 After Burry criticized index funds and hyperlinked to Vanguard on his website, Vanguard's attorneys told him to cease and desist. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Of the people at troubled major institutions and relevant government departments whose insight about the crisis matched or exceeded Burry's, none was in the top job. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry began worrying about the housing market in 2003, when lenders resurrected interest-only mortgages and loosened credit standards. Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 6 Apr 2010 Goldman Sachs and other derivatives dealers did not demand daily collateral settlement from AAA-rated AIG. Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry demanded daily collateral settlement on his swaps, with cash posted to Scion's account the next day if positions moved in its favor. Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry used six counterparties for his credit default swaps to limit exposure to any one of them. Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 6 Apr 2010 By December 2005, subprime mortgages issued six months earlier were already showing atypically high delinquency rates. Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2008 Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2006 Burry said the positions "we" are short are now effectively undercollateralized by performing mortgages, pointing to ratios of delinquent, bankrupt, foreclosed and REO loans to total credit support, several of which were above one. Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2006 In a securitization, each trust is divided into tranches, each defined and rated by the degree of subordination protecting its principal from loss. Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2001 Burry earns no income from Scion Capital unless members' annual return exceeds 6% net of expenses. Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
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Michael Burry

Open its page

Factual Economics and markets

“It’s a perfect storm for Build-A-Bear (BBW), a one-of-one retailer now heavily shorted, 25% of the float, almost 9 days to cover.”

Michael Burry, X post 30 October 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-10-30 (X)

Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-10-30, using the most recent short-interest data available then (the exchange settlement report for late October 2026 or the closest earlier one). True: BBW short interest is about 25% of float (roughly 23–27%) and days to cover is 'almost 9' (roughly 8–9). Mostly true: one metric is slightly off, for example short interest is 21–23% or 27–29% of float, or days to cover is 7–8 or 9–10, while the other matches and the stock is clearly heavily shorted. Mixed: one metric matches and the other is clearly off. Mostly false: BBW is shorted well above typical levels (for example more than 10% of float), but both stated figures are substantially wrong. False: short interest is low (for example under 10% of float) and days to cover is far below 9. Differences between data providers' float definitions should be taken into account: if any widely used provider (Nasdaq/FINRA-based, S3, Ortex, FactSet) supports the figures, that counts.

Evidence

  1. Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) Short Interest & Short Float | Updated Nov 2026 $BBW MarketBeat · 26 October 2026
    “As of October 15, 2026, Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) had a short interest of 2.82 million shares sold short, representing 23.84% of the public float.”
  2. Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) Short Interest & Short Float | Updated Nov 2026 $BBW MarketBeat · 26 October 2026
    “The short interest ratio (days to cover) is 9.5, meaning it would take 9.5 days of the average trading volume of 449,486 shares to cover all short positions.”
  3. Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW) short interest: 22.88% of shares outstanding HowShorted
    “9.52 days for settlement date 15 Oct 2026: FINRA's own short interest ratio, the reported shares short divided by average daily trading volume.”
  4. Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW) short interest: 22.88% of shares outstanding HowShorted
    “22.88% of Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.'s (BBW) shares outstanding were reported short for settlement date 15 Oct 2026, per FINRA's consolidated short interest report.”

Reasoning

I used the October 15, 2026 settlement data, the most recent available by October 30. MarketBeat put BBW short interest at 23.84% of the public float as of October 15, 2026 (E1). That falls within the 23–27% range the criteria treat as about 25%. For days to cover, MarketBeat gave 9.5 (E2) and HowShorted gave FINRA's figure of 9.52 (E3). That is slightly above "almost 9" and falls in the 9–10 band, which the criteria rate as mostly true when the other metric matches and the stock is clearly heavily shorted.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover.” (said 30 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_0060e10d1422, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0060e10d1422

Claims without a verdict

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