ClaimsPeople

Michael Burry

Michael Burry is a widely known investor who founded Scion Capital/Scion Asset Management and writes a paid Substack newsletter, reported by Yahoo Finance to have passed 300,000 subscribers.

593 claims collected, 191 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    74 67 80

    High confidence, 66 factual claims resolved. From 9 documents, 2001 to 2026; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 40 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    62 43 81

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2006 to 2011; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 3 checkable only against their own records. 1 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Michael Burry's claims

14 claims

14 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mixed Factual 27 Oct 2026 At the end of Q2 and during Q3 the developer landscape changed substantially, and Anthropic's prospectus does not reflect this. Factual · 27 Oct 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Factual 9 Jul 2026 Amazon's shortening of server lives in early 2025 caused additional expense of $677 million across 9 months. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Factual 9 Jul 2026 Intrator said CoreWeave's contracts run five years, its A100s stay fully booked, and a batch of H100s coming off contract was re-leased at 95% of the original price. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Factual 27 Mar 2026 In a video posted on arriving at Fannie Mae, Bill Pulte showed that no one was in the Fannie Mae office buildings. Factual · 27 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual 27 Feb 2026 Nvidia is investing $30 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI is to spend 20+ billion on Nvidia chips. Factual · 27 Feb 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Factual 20 Jan 2026 The US already has the right to place military installations across Greenland. Factual · 20 Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual Dec 2025 Michael Burry has generally stayed away from investing in biomed and medtech. Factual · Dec 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual Dec 2025 Former Stanford colleagues of Michael Burry run Palo Alto Investors, which has focused almost entirely on biomed and medtech for almost three decades. Factual · Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry's proposed "Milton's Opus" never got off the ground, after his investors met it with scepticism and outside institutions he approached went off to do the idea themselves. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 6 Apr 2010 After the crisis became clear in early 2007, the Fed chairman, Treasury secretary, president and senior members of Congress repeatedly underestimated its severity. Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 6 Apr 2010 By mid-2005 Michael Burry bought credit default swaps on billions of dollars of subprime mortgage-backed securities and bonds of financial companies. Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2006 Because home prices rose steadily for a long time, troubled homeowners were able to refinance, take cash out and often reduce monthly payments at the same time, which reduced foreclosure rates. Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2001 The cost of employee stock option compensation is borne by shareholders through significant dilution. Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
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Michael Burry

Open its page

Factual AI, the economy and work

“The end of q2 and during q3 a lot changed in the developer landscape, and that is not in this prospectus”

Michael Burry, investor, in Substack chat 27 October 2026 Burry says Anthropic's IPO filing changes nothing about AI bear case (Stocktwits)

At the end of Q2 and during Q3 the developer landscape changed substantially, and Anthropic's prospectus does not reflect this.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2026-10-27. There are two parts: (a) substantial changes in the AI/software developer landscape (e.g. major competitor tool launches, shifts in pricing or market share, developer adoption moves) happened in late Q2 and during Q3 2026; (b) Anthropic's IPO prospectus (Form S-1 as filed by that date) does not reflect them. True: such changes are documented and the prospectus's financial data and risk/business discussion stop before them or leave them out. Mostly true: both hold, but the prospectus mentions the changes briefly or generically without updating figures for them. Mixed: one part clearly holds and the other is doubtful, e.g. the prospectus already contains Q3 data or discussion of the developments. Mostly false: there were some changes but they were minor, or the prospectus substantially covers them. False: no Anthropic prospectus existed, or the prospectus explicitly covers the period and developments in question. If no public Anthropic prospectus was filed, resolve false.

Evidence

  1. Anthropic’s IPO prospectus shows $16.3 billion in revenue, an $80.7 billion net loss, and goal of an 'age of miracles' | Fortune Fortune · 26 October 2026
    “The company’s top five customers accounted for about 25% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026, and nearly half of its revenue flows through cloud marketplaces run by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.”
  2. Filing Detail U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR) · 26 October 2026
    “Type: S-1 | Act: 33 | File No.: 333-299633 | Film No.: 261483662”
  3. AI Coding Agents: Adoption Trends - The JetBrains Blog JetBrains Research · 19 August 2026
    “In May–July 2026, around 39% of professional developers worldwide were using Claude Code at work, up from 18% in January 2026.”
  4. Copilot Billing Shock Hits Developers -- Visual Studio Magazine Visual Studio Magazine (Converge 360) · 4 June 2026
    “I was shocked when a thorny problem with an AI agent in Visual Studio Code used most of my monthly Copilot Pro credits on day 1 of the new usage-based billing model.”

Reasoning

An Anthropic Form S-1 had been filed by the judging date (E1, E2). Part (a) is fairly well supported: JetBrains reports Claude Code use at work rising from 18% in January to about 39% of professional developers in May–July 2026 (E3), and Visual Studio Magazine reported a switch to usage-based Copilot billing in early June 2026 (E4). Part (b) is doubtful. Fortune's account of the prospectus cites customer revenue figures for the first nine months of 2026 (E1), so the filing's financial data covers Q3 rather than stopping before it. None of the evidence shows whether the prospectus discusses these specific developer-landscape changes.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “At the end of Q2 and during Q3 the developer landscape changed substantially, and Anthropic's prospectus does not reflect this.” (said 27 October 2026). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_d20896dbb3a3, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d20896dbb3a3

Claims without a verdict

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