Michael Burry

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  74 67 80

  High confidence, 66 factual claims resolved. From 9 documents, 2001 to 2026; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

  Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 40 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  62 43 81

  Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2006 to 2011; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

  Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 3 checkable only against their own records. 1 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

• Promises

  Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

  Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

  See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.