Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
74 67 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
62 43 81 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Michael Burry's claims
30 claims
“As the company prepared to go public in August 2020, Palantir’s board awarded Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options.”
Michael Burry, posting an article excerpt on X 12 February 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-02-12 (X)
As Palantir prepared to go public in August 2020, its board awarded Alex Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2026-02-12. True: Palantir's 2020 SEC filings (Form S-1/A, proxy) show that, in August 2020 or around its direct listing (September 2020), the board granted Alex Karp stock options valued at about $1.1 billion (within about 10%). Mostly true: the grant is real and in that window, but the value is off by more than 10% and up to about 25%, or the award mixed options with RSUs. Mixed: there was a large grant, but the timing differs materially (e.g. well before 2020), or the value is off by 25–50%. Mostly false: there was a grant, but its value is far different (under half or over double) or it was not stock options. False: the filings show no such grant in that period.
Evidence
- Palantir CEO Karp earned $1.1 billion in 2020, tied to equity ... CNBC · 29 April 2021
“In a proxy filing on Thursday, Palantir said the bulk of Karp's pay was tied to options worth $797.9 million, with another $296.4 million was for stock awards.”
- Palantir CEO Karp earned $1.1 billion in 2020, tied to equity ... CNBC · 29 April 2021
“In August, a month before Palantir went public, CEO Alex Karp was granted 141 million options that vest quarterly through August 2032.”
- DEF 14A U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Palantir Technologies Inc.)
“Our Board of Directors considered whether a similar combination of Executive Options and Executive RSUs as provided to our CEO, President, and COO would be appropriate”
- DEF 14A U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Palantir Technologies Inc.)
“These columns reflect the aggregate grant date fair value computed in accordance with ASC Topic 718 of the options to purchase shares of our common stock, growth units, and RSUs granted to the NEOs.”
Reasoning
E2 reports that in August 2020, a month before Palantir went public, Karp was granted 141 million options, so the timing is confirmed. According to E1, the proxy valued Karp's options at $797.9 million and his stock awards at another $296.4 million. Together these come to about $1.1 billion, but the options alone were worth well under that. The proxy (E3, E4) confirms that Karp's award combined Executive Options with Executive RSUs. The resolution criteria rate an award that mixed options with RSUs as mostly true.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “As Palantir prepared to go public in August 2020, its board awarded Alex Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options.” (said 12 February 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_bc5efebb2d57, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bc5efebb2d57
Claims without a verdict
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