Michael Burry

Factual · Economics and markets

“As it stands, I get an email from the Federal Reserve every single day saying they’re monetizing 7 or 8 billion dollars or so of Treasuries each and every day thanks to QEII.”

Michael Burry, speaking at Vanderbilt lecture · 5 April 2011 · Transcript of Michael Burry's talk, Missteps to Mayhem (Vanderbilt News)

Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2011-04-05, during QE II. The test is the New York Fed's Treasury purchase operation results for roughly February to April 2011, together with whether the Fed issued daily operation announcements or emails. True: purchases ran on most business days, typical daily totals were roughly $6–9 billion, and daily notices by email or subscription were available. Mostly true: purchases ran almost every day and notices were sent, but the typical daily amounts were somewhat outside 7–8 billion 'or so' (about $5–6 billion or $9–10 billion), or operations ran on most days rather than literally every day. Mixed: the amounts are roughly right but operations were clearly not daily, or operations were daily but typical amounts were well outside the stated range. Mostly false: daily purchases were far smaller (for example under about $4 billion on average) or happened only on a minority of days, while the underlying monetisation was real. False: the Fed was not conducting regular Treasury purchases at that time.

Evidence

1. Brian P Sack: The SOMA portfolio at $2.654 trillion Bank for International Settlements (BIS central bankers' speeches), reproducing a speech by Brian P Sack, Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 20 July 2011

   “Over the life of the program, we conducted 140 outright purchase operations to meet the directive set out by the FOMC. That meant that we were active on nearly every day possible over that period.”

2. Brian P Sack: The SOMA portfolio at $2.654 trillion Bank for International Settlements (BIS central bankers' speeches), reproducing a speech by Brian P Sack, Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 20 July 2011

   “Our operations ranged in size from just over $1 billion to around $9 billion, with an average size of about $5.5 billion.”

3. Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 13 January 2011

   “The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on February 10, 2011.”

Reasoning

A New York Fed official said the Desk ran 140 outright purchase operations under QE2 and was active on nearly every possible day (E1). That supports the claim of daily Treasury purchases. The same official said operations ranged from just over $1 billion to around $9 billion, averaging about $5.5 billion (E2). That average falls in the criteria's "somewhat outside" band, below the claimed $7–8 billion. The New York Fed did publish regular schedules and approximate purchase amounts (E4), but the evidence does not confirm daily email delivery, and the figures cover the whole programme rather than only February to April 2011.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email.” (said 5 April 2011). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_7fd3bf8fc3f8, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7fd3bf8fc3f8