| Unresolvable |
Factual |
3 Nov 2026 |
2026 has been the worst year for consumer sentiment on record, going back to 1952.
Factual · 3 Nov 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
3 Nov 2026 |
The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s.
Factual · 3 Nov 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Oct 2026 |
Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover.
Factual · 30 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
30 Oct 2026 |
Burry made the case the prior week that the October 6, 2026 S&P 500 record close looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.
Factual · 30 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
27 Oct 2026 |
Anthropic's filing does not attribute the overall slowing of growth to a decline in tokenmaxxing.
Factual · 27 Oct 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
27 Oct 2026 |
Burry said he thinks LLMs are already being used more efficiently and that this trend will continue, to the detriment of their growth rate.
Prediction · 27 Oct 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
27 Oct 2026 |
At the end of Q2 and during Q3 the developer landscape changed substantially, and Anthropic's prospectus does not reflect this.
Factual · 27 Oct 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
27 Oct 2026 |
Michael Burry has never said that LLMs would stop improving.
Factual · 27 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Oct 2026 |
After one year on Substack, Cassandra Unchained is No. 1 Rising on Substack with 402,000 followers and 343,000 subscribers.
Factual · 26 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Promise |
26 Oct 2026 |
Michael Burry will not change Cassandra Unchained pricing from $49/month and $479/year.
Promise · 26 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
26 Oct 2026 |
The Cassandra Unchained Substack will not raise its subscription price on November 1, 2026.
Promise · 26 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Promise |
26 Oct 2026 |
Subscribers to Cassandra Unchained keep their original rate and plan for the lifetime of their subscription and can renew continuously at that initial rate.
Promise · 26 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
24 Oct 2026 |
Across 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980, October 6, 2026 and March 2000 are the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs by almost any measure.
Factual · 24 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Promise |
14 Oct 2026 |
5% of Cassandra Unchained's gross revenues in October 2026 will go to Siloam Health.
Promise · 14 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
13 Oct 2026 |
Michael Burry swapped common stock for junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Factual · 13 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
11 Oct 2026 |
In the week before 2026-10-11, Michael Burry made a trade move in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock.
Factual · 11 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Oct 2026 |
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top.
Factual · 11 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
9 Oct 2026 |
By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise.
Factual · 9 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
8 Oct 2026 |
The largest inflation-adjusted pre-IPO valuation of 1990-2000 was UPS at $119 billion, when the company was 92 years old.
Factual · 8 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
6 Oct 2026 |
The current denial stage of the stock market will last 6-9 months, as in 2000 and 2008.
Prediction · 6 Oct 2026 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Sep 2026 |
The AI bubble may burst sooner rather than later.
Prediction · Sep 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Sep 2026 |
If AI spending stops or slows, the AI trade will come apart.
Prediction · Sep 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Intrator told Jim Cramer that his customers are willing to rent GPUs for six to seven years.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
In the same quarter in early 2025, Meta extended its useful server lives to 5.5 years, reducing the depreciation hit to net income by $2.9 billion.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Amazon's shortening of server lives in early 2025 caused additional expense of $677 million across 9 months.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Michael Burry said that rentability is not his claim and never has been, adding that depreciation is not a bet on when a chip stops working.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
The biggest buyer and the biggest seller of these chips, including Nvidia's Jensen Huang, both acknowledged that the frontier moves faster than the depreciation schedules used by big hyperscalers and neo-clouds.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Intrator's consistent message is that Nvidia chips are rented on successive contracts, so depreciation schedules shorter than 5 or 6 years are ignorant.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
At the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference, Intrator described circular financing as good logistics for securing a volatile supply chain, given compute and power take years to build.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
H100s were introduced in 2022, so they could not have been coming off five-year contracts.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Intrator said CoreWeave's contracts run five years, its A100s stay fully booked, and a batch of H100s coming off contract was re-leased at 95% of the original price.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Intrator has not disclosed the term of the new H100 contract.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Michael Burry never said that A100 chips would stop functioning.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Across multiple CNBC and Jim Cramer appearances, Intrator told the same story about successive rentals of Nvidia chips.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Over roughly the past six months CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator has sent Burry arguments similar to the forwarded missive.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
In early 2025 Amazon shortened the useful life of a subset of its servers from 6 to 5 years, citing the pace of development.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
9 Jul 2026 |
Intrator has not specified utilization commitments or contract termination options for the new contracts.
Factual · 9 Jul 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
27 Mar 2026 |
US home equity is a record $35 trillion, nearly double pre-COVID levels.
Factual · 27 Mar 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
27 Mar 2026 |
In a video posted on arriving at Fannie Mae, Bill Pulte showed that no one was in the Fannie Mae office buildings.
Factual · 27 Mar 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
27 Mar 2026 |
The US has more residential square footage per capita than any other country in the world.
Factual · 27 Mar 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
9 Mar 2026 |
The Headstrong Project was founded in 2012 by a combat veteran.
Factual · 9 Mar 2026 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
3 Mar 2026 |
As of March 2026, Michael Burry had not directly tackled the overvaluation of the market itself in his writing.
Factual · 3 Mar 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Factual |
27 Feb 2026 |
Nvidia is investing $30 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI is to spend 20+ billion on Nvidia chips.
Factual · 27 Feb 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Feb 2026 |
All of Hong Kong's massive tech stocks (Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu, Trip.com) became massive after 2007.
Factual · 26 Feb 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
22 Feb 2026 |
RCA stock fell about 98% peak to trough in the early 1930s, while radio's growth continued for many more decades.
Factual · 22 Feb 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
12 Feb 2026 |
Palantir had lost $3.96 billion in its history as of June 30, 2020, according to its IPO filing.
Factual · 12 Feb 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Feb 2026 |
As Palantir prepared to go public in August 2020, its board awarded Alex Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options.
Factual · 12 Feb 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
5 Feb 2026 |
If GameStop deploys a large amount of capital near a market bottom, it will do far better than deploying capital in expensive markets.
Prediction · 5 Feb 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Feb 2026 |
Alphabet changed its risk factor and useful life methodology language to include "historical asset performance" and "expected technology advancements."
Factual · 5 Feb 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
3 Feb 2026 |
Fistula Foundation is rated 100% by Charity Navigator and A grade by Charity Watch.
Factual · 3 Feb 2026 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
27 Jan 2026 |
Buybacks, a board reorganization and the sale of Spring Wireless for cash were activist successes with concrete results but had zero impact on price or short interest.
Factual · 27 Jan 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2026 |
Michael Burry put together a Microsoft Word analyst template for his Scion analysts in early 2006.
Factual · 26 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
22 Jan 2026 |
Michael Burry said he was actively working on posts readers were expecting: GME Part 2, the Heretic's Guide Part 3, and the LULU and Palantir pieces.
Promise · 22 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
22 Jan 2026 |
On February 1, 2026, the Cassandra Unchained subscription rate for new subscribers will move to $49/month or $439/year.
Promise · 22 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Factual |
20 Jan 2026 |
The US already has the right to place military installations across Greenland.
Factual · 20 Jan 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Factual |
Dec 2025 |
Michael Burry has generally stayed away from investing in biomed and medtech.
Factual · Dec 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
Dec 2025 |
Tae wrote the book The Nvidia Way.
Factual · Dec 2025 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
Dec 2025 |
Former Stanford colleagues of Michael Burry run Palo Alto Investors, which has focused almost entirely on biomed and medtech for almost three decades.
Factual · Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
Dec 2025 |
Michael Burry said in early December 2025 that he was still working on "that story", which he described as "more like 2008" than he first thought, and hoped to post it in the next few weeks.
Promise · Dec 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Nov 2025 |
Scion Asset Management's most recent incarnation was essentially a friends-and-family fund.
Factual · 19 Nov 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Nov 2025 |
Burry did not market Scion Asset Management like most funds and did not try to grow assets by acquiring investors he did not already know.
Factual · 19 Nov 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
19 Nov 2025 |
Michael Burry is still managing his own money and is active in markets.
Factual · 19 Nov 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2025 |
The duration of Scion's single-name corporate CDS portfolio is roughly 3.5 years.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2025 |
Burry does not expect a lasting rebound in the stocks of technology companies with reckless management after the bubble burst.
Prediction · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2025 |
Scion's investment in Blue Ocean Re has largely been wound up.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2025 |
A number of the companies covered by Scion's credit protection contracts are engaged in the mortgage business.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2025 |
Scion's credit protection contracts cover $4.27 billion in notional value, largely on financial companies.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2025 |
As of the time of the interview, Scion held none of the listed positions.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2025 |
The Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will continue to fall as its equity, now over $14.7 million, grows.
Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
Scion's agreements with counterparties required daily collateral valuation in both directions.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2025 |
Without an automatic 1% asset management fee, the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will generally be no greater than 1%.
Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
Michael Burry earned a bachelor's degree in economics at UCLA and then an MD at Vanderbilt School of Medicine.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2025 |
Scion COO and General Counsel Steve Druskin and CFO Zaeed Kalsheker led a top-to-bottom reorganization of Scion's back office over the past year.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
Blue Ocean Re was set up in late 2005 to take advantage of what Burry called an extraordinary pricing ability in the retrocessional reinsurance space.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
Burry's main contact at Goldman Sachs was Veronica, a front-end salesperson.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2025 |
Burry said "we" had some communication difficulties with "the counterparties" over "that summer", and said he did not recall the specific dates.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2025 |
The total current loan balance of the deal as of the date discussed was $429,028,969.
Factual · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2025 |
In a coldly calculating rather than speculative market, stocks of companies governed with little respect for shareholders will suffer.
Prediction · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2025 |
Michael Burry keeps the vast majority of his net worth invested in the Scion Value Fund.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Prediction |
2025 |
Burry said he expected additional distributions of capital and profits from the Blue Ocean Re investment during the remainder of the year of the letter.
Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
2025 |
Scion did not pay $10,000,000 for the credit default swap; that was only its notional value.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2025 |
At the start of the second quarter, Scion Qualified Value Fund held $612 million in assets under management and Scion Value Fund held $133 million.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2025 |
Michael Burry said he remembers the responses he got when he claimed in 1999 that it was a bubble.
Factual · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
From Burry's point of view at the time, Goldman Sachs had been moving to his side of the subprime short trade as early as December 2006 and was working to get into the trade even bigger in spring 2007.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset because all asset-backed derivatives settled in cash.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Burry wrote a paper in 1994, as a summer extern at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, on why rehabilitation medicine was doing well.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
5 Apr 2011 |
Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term.
Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Burry decided to short the mortgage market, intending to profit from its collapse.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Burry left medicine with $145,000 in debt and no assets under management when starting Scion Capital.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Michael Burry's formal education is not in finance.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
AIG did not need to post collateral for its derivatives trades as long as it held a AA or better credit rating.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Fed Chairman Bernanke says the Federal Reserve is not printing money.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Around December 2006, Burry's fund liquidated billions of dollars of corporate credit default swap short positions in a fire sale instead of liquidating the fund.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
In late 2005 technical factors, including synthetic CDOs and ABX indices, kept credit derivative markets from signalling a warning about subprime risk.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
AIG was nationalized a few years after 2005 and the nationalization cost taxpayers some $180 billion.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
After Burry criticized index funds and hyperlinked to Vanguard on his website, Vanguard's attorneys told him to cease and desist.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Factual |
5 Apr 2011 |
Burry's proposed "Milton's Opus" never got off the ground, after his investors met it with scepticism and outside institutions he approached went off to do the idea themselves.
Factual · 5 Apr 2011 |
Their own work or organisation |