ClaimsPeople

Michael Burry

Michael Burry is a widely known investor who founded Scion Capital/Scion Asset Management and writes a paid Substack newsletter, reported by Yahoo Finance to have passed 300,000 subscribers.

593 claims collected, 191 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    74 67 80

    High confidence, 66 factual claims resolved. From 9 documents, 2001 to 2026; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 40 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    62 43 81

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2006 to 2011; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 3 checkable only against their own records. 1 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Michael Burry's claims

191 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Factual 3 Nov 2026 2026 has been the worst year for consumer sentiment on record, going back to 1952. Factual · 3 Nov 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 3 Nov 2026 The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s. Factual · 3 Nov 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 30 Oct 2026 Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover. Factual · 30 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 30 Oct 2026 Burry made the case the prior week that the October 6, 2026 S&P 500 record close looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980. Factual · 30 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 27 Oct 2026 Anthropic's filing does not attribute the overall slowing of growth to a decline in tokenmaxxing. Factual · 27 Oct 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Oct 2026 Burry said he thinks LLMs are already being used more efficiently and that this trend will continue, to the detriment of their growth rate. Prediction · 27 Oct 2026 AI capabilities
Mixed Factual 27 Oct 2026 At the end of Q2 and during Q3 the developer landscape changed substantially, and Anthropic's prospectus does not reflect this. Factual · 27 Oct 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 27 Oct 2026 Michael Burry has never said that LLMs would stop improving. Factual · 27 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 26 Oct 2026 After one year on Substack, Cassandra Unchained is No. 1 Rising on Substack with 402,000 followers and 343,000 subscribers. Factual · 26 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 26 Oct 2026 Michael Burry will not change Cassandra Unchained pricing from $49/month and $479/year. Promise · 26 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 26 Oct 2026 The Cassandra Unchained Substack will not raise its subscription price on November 1, 2026. Promise · 26 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 26 Oct 2026 Subscribers to Cassandra Unchained keep their original rate and plan for the lifetime of their subscription and can renew continuously at that initial rate. Promise · 26 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 24 Oct 2026 Across 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980, October 6, 2026 and March 2000 are the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs by almost any measure. Factual · 24 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Promise 14 Oct 2026 5% of Cassandra Unchained's gross revenues in October 2026 will go to Siloam Health. Promise · 14 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 13 Oct 2026 Michael Burry swapped common stock for junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Factual · 13 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 11 Oct 2026 In the week before 2026-10-11, Michael Burry made a trade move in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock. Factual · 11 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 11 Oct 2026 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top. Factual · 11 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 9 Oct 2026 By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise. Factual · 9 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 8 Oct 2026 The largest inflation-adjusted pre-IPO valuation of 1990-2000 was UPS at $119 billion, when the company was 92 years old. Factual · 8 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 6 Oct 2026 The current denial stage of the stock market will last 6-9 months, as in 2000 and 2008. Prediction · 6 Oct 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction Sep 2026 The AI bubble may burst sooner rather than later. Prediction · Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Sep 2026 If AI spending stops or slows, the AI trade will come apart. Prediction · Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Factual 9 Jul 2026 Intrator told Jim Cramer that his customers are willing to rent GPUs for six to seven years. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Factual 9 Jul 2026 In the same quarter in early 2025, Meta extended its useful server lives to 5.5 years, reducing the depreciation hit to net income by $2.9 billion. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Factual 9 Jul 2026 Amazon's shortening of server lives in early 2025 caused additional expense of $677 million across 9 months. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Factual 9 Jul 2026 Michael Burry said that rentability is not his claim and never has been, adding that depreciation is not a bet on when a chip stops working. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 9 Jul 2026 The biggest buyer and the biggest seller of these chips, including Nvidia's Jensen Huang, both acknowledged that the frontier moves faster than the depreciation schedules used by big hyperscalers and neo-clouds. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Factual 9 Jul 2026 Intrator's consistent message is that Nvidia chips are rented on successive contracts, so depreciation schedules shorter than 5 or 6 years are ignorant. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Factual 9 Jul 2026 At the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference, Intrator described circular financing as good logistics for securing a volatile supply chain, given compute and power take years to build. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Factual 9 Jul 2026 H100s were introduced in 2022, so they could not have been coming off five-year contracts. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Factual 9 Jul 2026 Intrator said CoreWeave's contracts run five years, its A100s stay fully booked, and a batch of H100s coming off contract was re-leased at 95% of the original price. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Factual 9 Jul 2026 Intrator has not disclosed the term of the new H100 contract. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Factual 9 Jul 2026 Michael Burry never said that A100 chips would stop functioning. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 9 Jul 2026 Across multiple CNBC and Jim Cramer appearances, Intrator told the same story about successive rentals of Nvidia chips. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only Factual 9 Jul 2026 Over roughly the past six months CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator has sent Burry arguments similar to the forwarded missive. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Factual 9 Jul 2026 In early 2025 Amazon shortened the useful life of a subset of its servers from 6 to 5 years, citing the pace of development. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Factual 9 Jul 2026 Intrator has not specified utilization commitments or contract termination options for the new contracts. Factual · 9 Jul 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Factual 27 Mar 2026 US home equity is a record $35 trillion, nearly double pre-COVID levels. Factual · 27 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 27 Mar 2026 In a video posted on arriving at Fannie Mae, Bill Pulte showed that no one was in the Fannie Mae office buildings. Factual · 27 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 27 Mar 2026 The US has more residential square footage per capita than any other country in the world. Factual · 27 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 9 Mar 2026 The Headstrong Project was founded in 2012 by a combat veteran. Factual · 9 Mar 2026 Other
Unresolvable Factual 3 Mar 2026 As of March 2026, Michael Burry had not directly tackled the overvaluation of the market itself in his writing. Factual · 3 Mar 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 27 Feb 2026 Nvidia is investing $30 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI is to spend 20+ billion on Nvidia chips. Factual · 27 Feb 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Factual 26 Feb 2026 All of Hong Kong's massive tech stocks (Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu, Trip.com) became massive after 2007. Factual · 26 Feb 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 22 Feb 2026 RCA stock fell about 98% peak to trough in the early 1930s, while radio's growth continued for many more decades. Factual · 22 Feb 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 12 Feb 2026 Palantir had lost $3.96 billion in its history as of June 30, 2020, according to its IPO filing. Factual · 12 Feb 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Feb 2026 As Palantir prepared to go public in August 2020, its board awarded Alex Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options. Factual · 12 Feb 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 Feb 2026 If GameStop deploys a large amount of capital near a market bottom, it will do far better than deploying capital in expensive markets. Prediction · 5 Feb 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 5 Feb 2026 Alphabet changed its risk factor and useful life methodology language to include "historical asset performance" and "expected technology advancements." Factual · 5 Feb 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 3 Feb 2026 Fistula Foundation is rated 100% by Charity Navigator and A grade by Charity Watch. Factual · 3 Feb 2026 Other
Unresolvable Factual 27 Jan 2026 Buybacks, a board reorganization and the sale of Spring Wireless for cash were activist successes with concrete results but had zero impact on price or short interest. Factual · 27 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2026 Michael Burry put together a Microsoft Word analyst template for his Scion analysts in early 2006. Factual · 26 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 22 Jan 2026 Michael Burry said he was actively working on posts readers were expecting: GME Part 2, the Heretic's Guide Part 3, and the LULU and Palantir pieces. Promise · 22 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 22 Jan 2026 On February 1, 2026, the Cassandra Unchained subscription rate for new subscribers will move to $49/month or $439/year. Promise · 22 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 20 Jan 2026 The US already has the right to place military installations across Greenland. Factual · 20 Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual Dec 2025 Michael Burry has generally stayed away from investing in biomed and medtech. Factual · Dec 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual Dec 2025 Tae wrote the book The Nvidia Way. Factual · Dec 2025 Technology
Mixed Factual Dec 2025 Former Stanford colleagues of Michael Burry run Palo Alto Investors, which has focused almost entirely on biomed and medtech for almost three decades. Factual · Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Promise Dec 2025 Michael Burry said in early December 2025 that he was still working on "that story", which he described as "more like 2008" than he first thought, and hoped to post it in the next few weeks. Promise · Dec 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 19 Nov 2025 Scion Asset Management's most recent incarnation was essentially a friends-and-family fund. Factual · 19 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 19 Nov 2025 Burry did not market Scion Asset Management like most funds and did not try to grow assets by acquiring investors he did not already know. Factual · 19 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Nov 2025 Michael Burry is still managing his own money and is active in markets. Factual · 19 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2025 The duration of Scion's single-name corporate CDS portfolio is roughly 3.5 years. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Burry does not expect a lasting rebound in the stocks of technology companies with reckless management after the bubble burst. Prediction · 2025 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2025 Scion's investment in Blue Ocean Re has largely been wound up. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2025 A number of the companies covered by Scion's credit protection contracts are engaged in the mortgage business. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2025 Scion's credit protection contracts cover $4.27 billion in notional value, largely on financial companies. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2025 As of the time of the interview, Scion held none of the listed positions. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 The Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will continue to fall as its equity, now over $14.7 million, grows. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Scion's agreements with counterparties required daily collateral valuation in both directions. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Without an automatic 1% asset management fee, the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will generally be no greater than 1%. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Michael Burry earned a bachelor's degree in economics at UCLA and then an MD at Vanderbilt School of Medicine. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2025 Scion COO and General Counsel Steve Druskin and CFO Zaeed Kalsheker led a top-to-bottom reorganization of Scion's back office over the past year. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Blue Ocean Re was set up in late 2005 to take advantage of what Burry called an extraordinary pricing ability in the retrocessional reinsurance space. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Burry's main contact at Goldman Sachs was Veronica, a front-end salesperson. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2025 Burry said "we" had some communication difficulties with "the counterparties" over "that summer", and said he did not recall the specific dates. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2025 The total current loan balance of the deal as of the date discussed was $429,028,969. Factual · 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 In a coldly calculating rather than speculative market, stocks of companies governed with little respect for shareholders will suffer. Prediction · 2025 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2025 Michael Burry keeps the vast majority of his net worth invested in the Scion Value Fund. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 2025 Burry said he expected additional distributions of capital and profits from the Blue Ocean Re investment during the remainder of the year of the letter. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2025 Scion did not pay $10,000,000 for the credit default swap; that was only its notional value. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2025 At the start of the second quarter, Scion Qualified Value Fund held $612 million in assets under management and Scion Value Fund held $133 million. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2025 Michael Burry said he remembers the responses he got when he claimed in 1999 that it was a bubble. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 5 Apr 2011 From Burry's point of view at the time, Goldman Sachs had been moving to his side of the subprime short trade as early as December 2006 and was working to get into the trade even bigger in spring 2007. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset because all asset-backed derivatives settled in cash. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry wrote a paper in 1994, as a summer extern at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, on why rehabilitation medicine was doing well. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry decided to short the mortgage market, intending to profit from its collapse. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry left medicine with $145,000 in debt and no assets under management when starting Scion Capital. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 5 Apr 2011 Michael Burry's formal education is not in finance. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 5 Apr 2011 AIG did not need to post collateral for its derivatives trades as long as it held a AA or better credit rating. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Fed Chairman Bernanke says the Federal Reserve is not printing money. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 5 Apr 2011 Around December 2006, Burry's fund liquidated billions of dollars of corporate credit default swap short positions in a fire sale instead of liquidating the fund. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 5 Apr 2011 In late 2005 technical factors, including synthetic CDOs and ABX indices, kept credit derivative markets from signalling a warning about subprime risk. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 5 Apr 2011 AIG was nationalized a few years after 2005 and the nationalization cost taxpayers some $180 billion. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 Apr 2011 Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Other
Mostly true Factual 5 Apr 2011 After Burry criticized index funds and hyperlinked to Vanguard on his website, Vanguard's attorneys told him to cease and desist. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry's proposed "Milton's Opus" never got off the ground, after his investors met it with scepticism and outside institutions he approached went off to do the idea themselves. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Back to the list

Factual AI compute, hardware and data

“During the same quarter, Meta (META) extended its useful server lives to 5.5 years, reducing the depreciation hit to net income by $2.9 billion.”

Michael Burry, Substack author 9 July 2026 Short Thoughts July 8, 2026 - NVDA, Neos, Hyperscalers, Jevons Paradox, and Compression (Cassandra Unchained)

In the same quarter in early 2025, Meta extended its useful server lives to 5.5 years, reducing the depreciation hit to net income by $2.9 billion.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Test: against Meta's filings. True: Meta extended the estimated useful life of its servers and network assets to 5.5 years, effective in the quarter the claim refers to (early 2025, beginning January 2025), and disclosed a reduction of about $2.9 billion (within 5%) in depreciation expense or in its impact on net income. Mostly true: the extension to 5.5 years happened in that quarter, and $2.9 billion is Meta's estimate of the full-year 2025 reduction in depreciation expense (pre-tax) rather than the effect on net income in that quarter. Mixed: the extension happened but the amount disclosed differs materially (by more than 5% and less than 30%). Mostly false: the extension was to a different useful life or took place in a different period, with only loosely related figures. False: Meta made no such extension.

Evidence

  1. meta-20250331 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Meta Platforms, Inc. Form 10-Q for Q1 2025) · 31 March 2025
    “Based on the servers and network assets placed in service as of December 31, 2024, the financial impact of this change in estimate included a reduction in depreciation expense of $826 million and an increase in net income of $695 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, for the three months ended March 31, 2025.”
  2. Document - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Meta Platforms, Inc. Exhibit 99.1, Q4 and FY2024 results press release dated January 29, 2025) · 29 January 2025
    “Based on the servers and network assets placed in service as of December 31, 2024, we expect this change in accounting estimate will reduce our full year 2025 depreciation expense by approximately $2.9 billion.”
  3. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Meta Platforms, Inc. XBRL accounting policies page, 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2025)
    “| Servers and network assets | | | | | | to 5.5 years | | |”

Reasoning

Meta's Q1 2025 10-Q reports the effect of the useful-life change for the three months ended March 31, 2025, showing it took effect in Q1 2025 (E1). Meta's 2025 accounting policies list servers and network assets "to 5.5 years" (E3). The $2.9 billion figure is Meta's estimate of the reduction in full-year 2025 depreciation expense (E2), not the effect on net income for the quarter. For Q1 2025 alone, depreciation fell by $826 million and net income rose by $695 million (E1). This matches the criteria's 'mostly true' case.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “In the same quarter in early 2025, Meta extended its useful server lives to 5.5 years, reducing the depreciation hit to net income by $2.9 billion.” (said 9 July 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_21f406e04b38, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_21f406e04b38

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Michael Burry? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.