Michael Burry: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

74 67 80

High confidence, 66 factual claims resolved. From 9 documents, 2001 to 2026; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 40 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

62 43 81

Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2006 to 2011; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 3 checkable only against their own records. 1 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Michael Burry's claims

191 claims · page 1 of 2

191 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Unresolvable	Factual	3 Nov 2026	2026 has been the worst year for consumer sentiment on record, going back to 1952. Factual · 3 Nov 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Factual	3 Nov 2026	The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s. Factual · 3 Nov 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	30 Oct 2026	Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover. Factual · 30 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	30 Oct 2026	Burry made the case the prior week that the October 6, 2026 S&P 500 record close looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980. Factual · 30 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	27 Oct 2026	Anthropic's filing does not attribute the overall slowing of growth to a decline in tokenmaxxing. Factual · 27 Oct 2026	AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable	Prediction	27 Oct 2026	Burry said he thinks LLMs are already being used more efficiently and that this trend will continue, to the detriment of their growth rate. Prediction · 27 Oct 2026	AI capabilities
Mixed	Factual	27 Oct 2026	At the end of Q2 and during Q3 the developer landscape changed substantially, and Anthropic's prospectus does not reflect this. Factual · 27 Oct 2026	AI, the economy and work
Mostly true	Factual	27 Oct 2026	Michael Burry has never said that LLMs would stop improving. Factual · 27 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	26 Oct 2026	After one year on Substack, Cassandra Unchained is No. 1 Rising on Substack with 402,000 followers and 343,000 subscribers. Factual · 26 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Not yet due	Promise	26 Oct 2026	Michael Burry will not change Cassandra Unchained pricing from $49/month and $479/year. Promise · 26 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Promise	26 Oct 2026	The Cassandra Unchained Substack will not raise its subscription price on November 1, 2026. Promise · 26 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Not yet due	Promise	26 Oct 2026	Subscribers to Cassandra Unchained keep their original rate and plan for the lifetime of their subscription and can renew continuously at that initial rate. Promise · 26 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	24 Oct 2026	Across 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980, October 6, 2026 and March 2000 are the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs by almost any measure. Factual · 24 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Own records only	Promise	14 Oct 2026	5% of Cassandra Unchained's gross revenues in October 2026 will go to Siloam Health. Promise · 14 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	13 Oct 2026	Michael Burry swapped common stock for junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Factual · 13 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	11 Oct 2026	In the week before 2026-10-11, Michael Burry made a trade move in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock. Factual · 11 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	11 Oct 2026	Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top. Factual · 11 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Factual	9 Oct 2026	By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise. Factual · 9 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	8 Oct 2026	The largest inflation-adjusted pre-IPO valuation of 1990-2000 was UPS at $119 billion, when the company was 92 years old. Factual · 8 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Prediction	6 Oct 2026	The current denial stage of the stock market will last 6-9 months, as in 2000 and 2008. Prediction · 6 Oct 2026	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Prediction	Sep 2026	The AI bubble may burst sooner rather than later. Prediction · Sep 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	Sep 2026	If AI spending stops or slows, the AI trade will come apart. Prediction · Sep 2026	AI, the economy and work
Resolved true	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Intrator told Jim Cramer that his customers are willing to rent GPUs for six to seven years. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true	Factual	9 Jul 2026	In the same quarter in early 2025, Meta extended its useful server lives to 5.5 years, reducing the depreciation hit to net income by $2.9 billion. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Amazon's shortening of server lives in early 2025 caused additional expense of $677 million across 9 months. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Michael Burry said that rentability is not his claim and never has been, adding that depreciation is not a bet on when a chip stops working. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	9 Jul 2026	The biggest buyer and the biggest seller of these chips, including Nvidia's Jensen Huang, both acknowledged that the frontier moves faster than the depreciation schedules used by big hyperscalers and neo-clouds. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Intrator's consistent message is that Nvidia chips are rented on successive contracts, so depreciation schedules shorter than 5 or 6 years are ignorant. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Factual	9 Jul 2026	At the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference, Intrator described circular financing as good logistics for securing a volatile supply chain, given compute and power take years to build. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI, the economy and work
Resolved true	Factual	9 Jul 2026	H100s were introduced in 2022, so they could not have been coming off five-year contracts. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Intrator said CoreWeave's contracts run five years, its A100s stay fully booked, and a batch of H100s coming off contract was re-leased at 95% of the original price. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Intrator has not disclosed the term of the new H100 contract. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Michael Burry never said that A100 chips would stop functioning. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Across multiple CNBC and Jim Cramer appearances, Intrator told the same story about successive rentals of Nvidia chips. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Over roughly the past six months CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator has sent Burry arguments similar to the forwarded missive. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true	Factual	9 Jul 2026	In early 2025 Amazon shortened the useful life of a subset of its servers from 6 to 5 years, citing the pace of development. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Factual	9 Jul 2026	Intrator has not specified utilization commitments or contract termination options for the new contracts. Factual · 9 Jul 2026	AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true	Factual	27 Mar 2026	US home equity is a record $35 trillion, nearly double pre-COVID levels. Factual · 27 Mar 2026	Economics and markets
Mixed	Factual	27 Mar 2026	In a video posted on arriving at Fannie Mae, Bill Pulte showed that no one was in the Fannie Mae office buildings. Factual · 27 Mar 2026	AI policy and governance
Unresolvable	Factual	27 Mar 2026	The US has more residential square footage per capita than any other country in the world. Factual · 27 Mar 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	9 Mar 2026	The Headstrong Project was founded in 2012 by a combat veteran. Factual · 9 Mar 2026	Other
Unresolvable	Factual	3 Mar 2026	As of March 2026, Michael Burry had not directly tackled the overvaluation of the market itself in his writing. Factual · 3 Mar 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	27 Feb 2026	Nvidia is investing $30 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI is to spend 20+ billion on Nvidia chips. Factual · 27 Feb 2026	AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable	Factual	26 Feb 2026	All of Hong Kong's massive tech stocks (Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu, Trip.com) became massive after 2007. Factual · 26 Feb 2026	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	22 Feb 2026	RCA stock fell about 98% peak to trough in the early 1930s, while radio's growth continued for many more decades. Factual · 22 Feb 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	12 Feb 2026	Palantir had lost $3.96 billion in its history as of June 30, 2020, according to its IPO filing. Factual · 12 Feb 2026	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	12 Feb 2026	As Palantir prepared to go public in August 2020, its board awarded Alex Karp $1.1 billion worth of stock options. Factual · 12 Feb 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	5 Feb 2026	If GameStop deploys a large amount of capital near a market bottom, it will do far better than deploying capital in expensive markets. Prediction · 5 Feb 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	5 Feb 2026	Alphabet changed its risk factor and useful life methodology language to include "historical asset performance" and "expected technology advancements." Factual · 5 Feb 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	3 Feb 2026	Fistula Foundation is rated 100% by Charity Navigator and A grade by Charity Watch. Factual · 3 Feb 2026	Other
Unresolvable	Factual	27 Jan 2026	Buybacks, a board reorganization and the sale of Spring Wireless for cash were activist successes with concrete results but had zero impact on price or short interest. Factual · 27 Jan 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	26 Jan 2026	Michael Burry put together a Microsoft Word analyst template for his Scion analysts in early 2006. Factual · 26 Jan 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Promise	22 Jan 2026	Michael Burry said he was actively working on posts readers were expecting: GME Part 2, the Heretic's Guide Part 3, and the LULU and Palantir pieces. Promise · 22 Jan 2026	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Promise	22 Jan 2026	On February 1, 2026, the Cassandra Unchained subscription rate for new subscribers will move to $49/month or $439/year. Promise · 22 Jan 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	20 Jan 2026	The US already has the right to place military installations across Greenland. Factual · 20 Jan 2026	AI policy and governance
Mixed	Factual	Dec 2025	Michael Burry has generally stayed away from investing in biomed and medtech. Factual · Dec 2025	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	Dec 2025	Tae wrote the book The Nvidia Way. Factual · Dec 2025	Technology
Mixed	Factual	Dec 2025	Former Stanford colleagues of Michael Burry run Palo Alto Investors, which has focused almost entirely on biomed and medtech for almost three decades. Factual · Dec 2025	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Promise	Dec 2025	Michael Burry said in early December 2025 that he was still working on "that story", which he described as "more like 2008" than he first thought, and hoped to post it in the next few weeks. Promise · Dec 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	19 Nov 2025	Scion Asset Management's most recent incarnation was essentially a friends-and-family fund. Factual · 19 Nov 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	19 Nov 2025	Burry did not market Scion Asset Management like most funds and did not try to grow assets by acquiring investors he did not already know. Factual · 19 Nov 2025	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	19 Nov 2025	Michael Burry is still managing his own money and is active in markets. Factual · 19 Nov 2025	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2025	The duration of Scion's single-name corporate CDS portfolio is roughly 3.5 years. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	2025	Burry does not expect a lasting rebound in the stocks of technology companies with reckless management after the bubble burst. Prediction · 2025	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	2025	Scion's investment in Blue Ocean Re has largely been wound up. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2025	A number of the companies covered by Scion's credit protection contracts are engaged in the mortgage business. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2025	Scion's credit protection contracts cover $4.27 billion in notional value, largely on financial companies. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2025	As of the time of the interview, Scion held none of the listed positions. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	2025	The Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will continue to fall as its equity, now over $14.7 million, grows. Prediction · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2025	Scion's agreements with counterparties required daily collateral valuation in both directions. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	2025	Without an automatic 1% asset management fee, the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will generally be no greater than 1%. Prediction · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2025	Michael Burry earned a bachelor's degree in economics at UCLA and then an MD at Vanderbilt School of Medicine. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2025	Scion COO and General Counsel Steve Druskin and CFO Zaeed Kalsheker led a top-to-bottom reorganization of Scion's back office over the past year. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2025	Blue Ocean Re was set up in late 2005 to take advantage of what Burry called an extraordinary pricing ability in the retrocessional reinsurance space. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2025	Burry's main contact at Goldman Sachs was Veronica, a front-end salesperson. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2025	Burry said "we" had some communication difficulties with "the counterparties" over "that summer", and said he did not recall the specific dates. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2025	The total current loan balance of the deal as of the date discussed was $429,028,969. Factual · 2025	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2025	In a coldly calculating rather than speculative market, stocks of companies governed with little respect for shareholders will suffer. Prediction · 2025	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	2025	Michael Burry keeps the vast majority of his net worth invested in the Scion Value Fund. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Prediction	2025	Burry said he expected additional distributions of capital and profits from the Blue Ocean Re investment during the remainder of the year of the letter. Prediction · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	2025	Scion did not pay $10,000,000 for the credit default swap; that was only its notional value. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	2025	At the start of the second quarter, Scion Qualified Value Fund held $612 million in assets under management and Scion Value Fund held $133 million. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2025	Michael Burry said he remembers the responses he got when he claimed in 1999 that it was a bubble. Factual · 2025	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	5 Apr 2011	From Burry's point of view at the time, Goldman Sachs had been moving to his side of the subprime short trade as early as December 2006 and was working to get into the trade even bigger in spring 2007. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset because all asset-backed derivatives settled in cash. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Burry wrote a paper in 1994, as a summer extern at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, on why rehabilitation medicine was doing well. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	5 Apr 2011	Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Prediction · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Burry decided to short the mortgage market, intending to profit from its collapse. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Burry left medicine with $145,000 in debt and no assets under management when starting Scion Capital. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Michael Burry's formal education is not in finance. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	5 Apr 2011	AIG did not need to post collateral for its derivatives trades as long as it held a AA or better credit rating. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Fed Chairman Bernanke says the Federal Reserve is not printing money. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Around December 2006, Burry's fund liquidated billions of dollars of corporate credit default swap short positions in a fire sale instead of liquidating the fund. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	5 Apr 2011	In late 2005 technical factors, including synthetic CDOs and ABX indices, kept credit derivative markets from signalling a warning about subprime risk. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Factual	5 Apr 2011	AIG was nationalized a few years after 2005 and the nationalization cost taxpayers some $180 billion. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Other
Mostly true	Factual	5 Apr 2011	After Burry criticized index funds and hyperlinked to Vanguard on his website, Vanguard's attorneys told him to cease and desist. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	5 Apr 2011	Burry's proposed "Milton's Opus" never got off the ground, after his investors met it with scepticism and outside institutions he approached went off to do the idea themselves. Factual · 5 Apr 2011	Their own work or organisation

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Michael Burry

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Factual AI, the economy and work

“Overall slowing of growth is not attributed to a decline in tokenmaxxing but I did not expect that to be mentioned”

Michael Burry, investor, in Substack chat 27 October 2026 Burry says Anthropic's IPO filing changes nothing about AI bear case (Stocktwits)

Anthropic's filing does not attribute the overall slowing of growth to a decline in tokenmaxxing.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

True: the Anthropic filing being referred to (the one Burry was discussing around 2026-10-27) contains no statement attributing slowing overall growth to a decline in 'tokenmaxxing' or an equivalent concept (heavy-usage or token-maximizing customer behavior falling off). Mostly true: the filing does not make that attribution directly, but contains a brief, indirect reference to related usage patterns that someone could loosely read as touching on it. Mixed: the filing mentions a decline in such usage among several factors behind slower growth, without clearly naming it as a cause. Mostly false: the filing names reduced heavy or token-maximizing usage as a contributing cause of slower growth, in different words. False: the filing explicitly names a decline in tokenmaxxing or equivalent behavior as a reason for the slowing of overall growth. If the filing cannot be identified, the claim is unresolvable.

Evidence

Anthropic’s growth slowed and costs jumped in the third quarter, updated IPO filing shows | Fortune Fortune · 2 November 2026
“Anthropic says revenue growth from higher usage was partly offset by “a decrease of approximately $600 million from price reductions introduced as part of new model versions and contractual discounts” between the second and third quarters.”
Anthropic’s growth slowed and costs jumped in the third quarter, updated IPO filing shows | Fortune Fortune · 2 November 2026
“The company’s revenue grew about 47% in the three months ended on Sept. 30, down from about 144% growth in the prior three months.”
Michael Burry Says Anthropic’s IPO Filing Has a Lot, but ‘Nothing That Changes’ His View: Big Short Investor Calls Out ‘Slowing’ Revenue Growth Yahoo Finance (Benzinga-produced article, citing a Business Insider report) · 28 October 2026
“Overall slowing of growth is not attributed to a decline in tokenmaxxing, but I did not expect that to be mentioned,”
Anthropic, PBC S-1 filed 2026-10-26 SecFilingDex · 26 October 2026
“IPO registration (S-1) filed October 26, 2026.”
Anthropic’s IPO filing reveals where OpenAI could have the upper hand | Fortune Fortune · 28 October 2026
“The company attributes its ultrafast growth rate to “early-stage adoption dynamics, the nascency of the AI market, and rapid initial customer expansion,””
Anthropic’s IPO filing reveals where OpenAI could have the upper hand | Fortune Fortune · 28 October 2026
“We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates, and we cannot assure you that it will continue to grow at all,” Anthropic’s S-1 reads.”
'The Big Short' investor Michael Burry maintains a bearish stance on AI trades: Anthropic's IPO does not alter his assessment, as risks extend beyond technology moomoo (Zhitong Finance report) · 27 October 2026
“The overall slowdown in growth wasn't attributed to a drop in tokenmaxxing, though I didn't expect it to mention that either,” Burry said.”

Reasoning

The filing can be identified as Anthropic's S-1 filed on October 26, 2026 [E4]. Fortune quotes only parts of it: the filing credits its fast growth to early-stage adoption dynamics and says growth is not expected to continue at comparable rates [E5, E6]. A later amended filing points to price reductions as an offsetting factor [E1]. None of these sources gives the filing's full discussion of why growth slowed, and the only direct statement that tokenmaxxing is not mentioned is Burry's own description, reported by others [E3, E7]. Without the filing text or an independent review showing that no such attribution exists, the evidence does not settle the claim.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Anthropic's filing does not attribute the overall slowing of growth to a decline in tokenmaxxing.” (said 27 October 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_10703c6dbf6d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_10703c6dbf6d

Claims without a verdict

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