Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
2 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly false | Prediction | 2 Sep 2023 | The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU. Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false | Prediction | Jun 1995 | George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Prediction · Jun 1995 | Economics and markets |
“they have a law that looks like it may pass as soon as October that effectively bans AI inside the Eu.”
Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist, interviewee 2 September 2023 Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World (EconTalk)
The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that the EU might pass a law as soon as October 2023 that 'effectively bans AI inside the EU'. The test is whether such a law was on track for, or achieved, passage around October 2023, and whether it would effectively ban AI in the EU. Because the timing is strongly hedged ('may', 'as soon as'), the 'effectively bans AI' part is the core requirement. TRUE: EU legislation was adopted, or politically agreed, around October 2023, and its terms effectively prohibit developing or deploying AI generally in the EU. MOSTLY TRUE: such a ban-like law passed, but somewhat later than October 2023. MOSTLY FALSE: an EU AI law was advancing or passed around then, but it regulates AI by risk tier and bans only specific practices. That is a real regulation overstated as a ban. FALSE: no EU law near that time came close to passing, and the law that eventually passed plainly permits general AI development and use.
Evidence
- EU Policymakers Clear Way For Passing Of Landmark AI Act - Law360 Law360 · 9 December 2023
“The AI Act proposes taking a risk-based, tiered approach to regulation that includes completely banning certain applications of the technology, including some uses of biometric systems,”
- AI Act enters into force European Commission (Directorate-General for Communication) · 1 August 2024
“Minimal risk: most AI systems such as spam filters and AI-enabled video games face no obligation under the AI Act, but companies can voluntarily adopt additional codes of conduct.”
- Artificial intelligence act | Legislative Train Schedule European Parliament · 20 April 2024
“Trilogue meetings took place in June, July, September, October and December 2023. Following protracted negotiations, the Council presidency and the European Parliament’s negotiators have reached a provisional agreement on the AI act on 9 December 2023.”
- Historic Timeline artificialintelligenceact.eu (EU AI Act resource run by the Future of Life Institute)
“9 December 2023 – The Parliament and the Council reached a provisional agreement on the AI Act.”
Reasoning
The EU AI Act was in trilogue negotiations in October 2023, and a provisional agreement followed on 9 December 2023 (E3, E4). So an EU AI law was moving forward around the time of the claim. Independent reporting says the law takes a risk-based, tiered approach and fully bans only certain uses, such as some biometric systems (E1). They also say most AI systems face no obligations under it (E2). That makes it a real regulation that the claim overstates as an effective ban on AI, which fits the criteria's "mostly false" category.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.” (said 2 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_4735333f2a21, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4735333f2a21
Claims without a verdict
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