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2 Sep 2023 |
the purpose of technology is to offload all of the drudge work so that we can spend our time on these questions.
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
Like machines, we should use them to offload all the work that we can
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
That did not happen, after the President created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which aimed to prevent it.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
I think these are fundamentally religious claims.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I think, to my mind, that's the adult conversation that has to happen, and that's the adult policymaking process that has to happen…
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Resolved true |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
Like, it can't get chips.
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2 Sep 2023 |
we have to actually call it what it is, which is an irrational apocalypse cult.
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2 Sep 2023 |
We basically created a God.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I think in terms of lists, so I ask it for a lot of lists.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I'm not a utopian and I'm not a believer in the Unconstrained Vision.
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2 Sep 2023 |
They've completely ruled out any sort of traditional religion.
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2 Sep 2023 |
we would propose that this should be solved with blockchain-based solutions
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2 Sep 2023 |
it gave me very, very good results.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I can't predict what people are going to invent.
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2 Sep 2023 |
in the social sciences, those are monster numbers.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I think both nuclear power has been net positive
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2 Sep 2023 |
it's a new kind of machine that's more sophisticated than the ones we've had before.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I would be a very strong advocate for actually the original modernist view.
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2 Sep 2023 |
Immanetizing the eschaton basically meant using human faculties to bring about heaven on earth.
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2 Sep 2023 |
we're talking about something that could generate infinite wealth, basically, on demand.
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2 Sep 2023 |
His point was: Okay, it's not so easy to create your own values.
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2 Sep 2023 |
This is kind of what Silicon Valley does.
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2 Sep 2023 |
Israel has as good a shot as any country at being a real leader in this.
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2 Sep 2023 |
the application of machine intelligence to all of the various problems of humanity as what I would describe as an augmentation to human…
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2 Sep 2023 |
I finally feel like I'm starting to understand these things.
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2 Sep 2023 |
all these people are atheists.
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2 Sep 2023 |
You only get these questions when you have a materially wealthy society; and the wealthier the society gets, the more time you have for…
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2 Sep 2023 |
In trade policy, it's a very similar choice they make when they decide to build 5G networks.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
China's published roadmap (2025 Plan, Digital Silk Road) shows the Chinese Communist Party expects to use AI for authoritarian population control inside China.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Chinese researchers had just published a paper on a model they built that is sort of close to GPT-4 quality.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
we should be in charge of the result.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I would not criticize them in this way if they were not tripping the line into advocating for actual real world violence.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I think it's a good idea to put a real focus on this.
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| Not researched |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Apple is very focused on building features into its releases that let users limit device use.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Not researched |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
The Chinese have certain advantages today, including what Andreessen called, "let's just say," access to "IP" from the United States.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Almost nothing is 40% causative of anything, apart from a very small number of exceptions.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
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Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
they've left science behind and they're firmly in the realm of religion.
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2 Sep 2023 |
And of course, as a human being, given the choice, you would always pick the live performance because you're going to remember it as a time…
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
handmade objects end up becoming the luxury goods.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
AI will be one of the key technologies shaping the world for hundreds of years, amid a new Cold War dynamic between the US and China.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
I would be a very strong advocate against the precautionary principle.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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2 Sep 2023 |
the tendency to form a apocalyptic cults, apocalyptic religions.
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Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
It's not falsifiable.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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2 Sep 2023 |
You get its fluid intelligence augmenting your own, but you also get its crystallized intelligence and its entire memory augmenting yours.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
By the way, we also have no metric.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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2 Sep 2023 |
for better or for worse, there is a Cold War dynamic developing.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I'm just finding in my daily life the upgrade from GPT-3.5 to 4.0 was very significant in terms of its ability to help me in all of my…
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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2 Sep 2023 |
Well, horror movies. If you hypothesize the terrible scenario, maybe you can avoid it or at least come to terms with it.
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2 Sep 2023 |
we've left the world of science and engineering and practical reality behind.
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2 Sep 2023 |
And so, these things actually survive as art forms.
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2 Sep 2023 |
I'm actually having to retrain my brain in real time to realize that it's available to me whenever I need it.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
there's this long-seated kind of tendency on the part of human beings to sort of impute human behavior into things that are actually not…
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Andreessen said that, in his view, virtually all new technologies have historically turned out to be net positive, at least from where we sit today.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
at least historically those have been overwhelming.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Vernor Vinge was probably the origin of the idea of the technological singularity, which Andreessen thought went back to the 1970s.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Not researched |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
The Soviet Union's cybernetics program of about 50 years ago to build Soviet AI did not succeed.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
in my mind, you always have to separate these kind of moral ethical considerations.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
a small group of people gets something to work; and then the minute that happens, that's like firing the starting gun to be able to get all…
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
If you do it for yourself, you could hypothetically use it to write your own tweets.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
Of course, the problem with bringing about heaven on earth is you stand a pretty good chance of bringing hell on earth.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
this is not a deterministic process. There's no guarantees in any of these things.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
AI-risk writers' literature proposes that dangerous AI emergence is an all-or-nothing event that happens overnight.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
I think people who don't have that at some point realize that there's something missing.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
It is a bipolar dynamic.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
But, they are still net losses to society.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
There's no testable hypothesis.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
I'm not a believer in what Thomas Sowell called the Unconstrained Vision, notwithstanding the title of the essay.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
Big net positive.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
The idea that you go into a tunnel in which you get to spend time with friends and family and you get to read longer-form things, it's…
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
A handmade suit from Savile Row comes with functional (working) sleeve buttons.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
Even though nobody today knows to how to sit down and do that, you just kind of get it as a consequence of the complexity of the system.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
Like, everything we do in science and technology is based on thinking from first principles.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
I would say Number One, the odds of that are very poor.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
One of the criticisms of modern technology over the last decade is it tends to make a lot of white collar workplaces a 24-by-7 experience…
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
it is an apocalypse cult that anthropomorphizes.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
by the way, that's how I think you can approximate the IQ of these systems, is because these are all kind of IQ tests for the most part.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
They either mean they want to do it really well or they want to regulate it out of existence.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
anybody who's ever tried to get Congress people to do anything, it doesn't happen like that.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
they tend to assemble sort of a proxy Christianity.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
I'm not proposing we turn over our society or our lives to AIs and let them make those decisions.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
He probably is a more practical guy and probably wants Israel to be a technology leader, which Israel is in many other areas of technology.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
as long as we're not talking about China, their conversation is entirely about how to regulate/punish the American tech industry.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
a candidly good memory does not actually necessarily make you, quote-unquote, "smarter."
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2 Sep 2023 |
you still have an obligation to crosscheck the citations
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Jun 2023 |
By the way, in some ways it actually has interesting psychological similarities to some of the COVID hysteria. So there's just a lot of…
Not checkable · 29 Jun 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Jun 2023 |
From my perspective it's this very kind of a-technical, a-scientific, kind of hysterical thing that's playing out,
Not checkable · 29 Jun 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Jun 2023 |
The hysterics have a much bigger voice than people who are calmer and maybe a little bit more dispassionate about things.
Not checkable · 29 Jun 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Jun 2023 |
The hysterical freakout has arrived in Washington, and it's arrived in Brussels, and it's arriving in capitals of countries all over the…
Not checkable · 29 Jun 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Jun 2023 |
The demands for regulation and laws under conditions of hysteria have kind of reached the point where I felt like I couldn't just let that…
Not checkable · 29 Jun 2023 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The Transformer algorithm, a neural net form that works in a sort of generalized way, was a recent theoretical breakthrough.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not researched |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
As of June 2023, AI chatbots' context window is limited and restarts from scratch in a new window.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The Transformer algorithm was invented in 2017.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
As of June 2023, AI breakthroughs were happening essentially every week.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
GPT-4 has far superior crystallized intelligence to any human.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Not researched |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
People of higher intelligence show higher physical health, educational attainment, career success and parenting success.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Jun 2023 |
69,420
Not checkable · 12 Jun 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Freedom-oriented regimes will generally want to make the US bet on AI.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |