| Mostly false |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Research establishes that in human affairs, higher intelligence leads to better outcomes in essentially every measurable aspect of human welfare and life quality.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Which AI bet (US or China) a country takes will help tilt its political system in the future, as AI shapes its politics and culture.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
There may be decades of architectural breakthroughs still ahead in AI.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he would estimate GPT-4's human-equivalent IQ, which he described as fluid intelligence, at roughly 130 to 135.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
As of June 2023 there are chip shortages throughout the AI ecosystem, and NVIDIA cannot make enough chips.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Outside the San Francisco Bay Area, AI development is overwhelmingly in Beijing and Shanghai.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Countries like Israel will have their own AI capabilities, but much of what they have will be derived from the United States.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Hundreds of studies' conclusions on the benefits of intelligence all correlate with fluid intelligence, the ability to rapidly assimilate knowledge and use it to solve problems.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The AI being discussed is not, strictly speaking, human intelligence.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
6 Jun 2023 |
Artificial intelligence will not destroy the world, and may instead save it.
Prediction · 6 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
20 Sep 2021 |
Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz will host their Clubhouse show "One On One with A & Z" on Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 5:00 PM Pacific.
Promise · 20 Sep 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
20 Aug 2021 |
Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz will host their Clubhouse show "One On One with A & Z" on Monday, August 23, 2021 at 7:00 PM Pacific.
Promise · 20 Aug 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Promise |
13 Aug 2021 |
Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz will host their Clubhouse show "One On One with A & Z" on Monday, August 16, 2021 at 7:00 PM Pacific.
Promise · 13 Aug 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
As of April 2020 there were no therapies or vaccine for the coronavirus, despite years of warnings about bat-borne coronaviruses.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Prices of housing, schools and hospitals have skyrocketed.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Energy experts say all carbon-based electrical power generation on the planet could be replaced by a few thousand new zero-emission nuclear reactors.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
American manufacturing output is higher than ever.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Milton Friedman said the great public sector mistake is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
The US government has never built a system to distribute money quickly to citizens and businesses when needed.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
The last major innovation in K-12 education was Montessori, which traces back to the 1960s.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
The US cannot build nearly enough housing in cities with surging economic potential, causing skyrocketing housing prices such as in San Francisco.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
As of April 2020 the US lacked enough coronavirus tests and test materials, including cotton swabs and common reagents.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
One-to-one tutoring can reliably increase education outcomes by two standard deviations (the Bloom two-sigma effect).
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Science and research methods |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2020 |
The institutional failure over the coronavirus pandemic will have effects through the rest of the 2020s.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Every Western institution was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic despite many prior warnings.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2020 |
The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Things built in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
Commercial drones will become a giant market in industries such as oil and gas and insurance.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz has since reversed course almost completely and is now deeply invested in healthcare.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Supersonic passenger flight with the Concorde existed previously but no longer exists.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
A single individual can now build a self-driving car, whereas ten years ago it was a DARPA-funded research challenge.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
Autonomous drone technology is about to tip and become very widely usable.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen said that probably the single, No. 1 thing "we" try to get "our companies" to do is raise prices.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
The autonomous drone can fly through underground parking garages without collisions.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
The autonomous drones are based on deep learning.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen described his firm's approach as one where, if the partner closest to a deal has a very strong degree of positive commitment and enthusiasm for it, the firm should make the investment even if others in the room disagree, though the partner is expected to stress test their own thinking first.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen said that "that", which in context seems to mean his firm's deep involvement in health, was "a response to the hedge fund thing". He added that very smart founders had been telling the firm it was "dumb"; the passage does not say what "the hedge fund thing" was.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Marc Andreessen has only seen the first season of the TV show Silicon Valley.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
In the American economy, the rate of job creation and destruction is falling rather than rising.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
The number one theme among struggling Andreessen Horowitz portfolio companies is that they do not charge enough for their product.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz formally creates a red team to argue the opposing side of a deal when necessary.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
Sky Deal's autonomous consumer drones will be a very big advance in what hobbyists can do.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
This new AI technology is the same technology Google's AI used to beat a human Go player.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
The sesame scene in season one of Silicon Valley is loosely based on Peter Thiel.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Other |
| Research failed |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen took part in a debate with Peter Thiel at the Milton Conference.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
Entrepreneurial opportunity is more likely to be in areas people think of as cult and fringe.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Warren Buffett invested in Heinz ketchup.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
When Andreessen arrived in Silicon Valley, the overwhelming mood was that the PC was finished and the Valley was probably done too.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Roof inspection, which involves a person climbing up on a roof and taking notes, is a fairly dangerous job.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen prepared for weeks for his debate with Peter Thiel, expecting Thiel not to prepare.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
The things being described, which the speaker said would be used for drones, will become things people rely on to make their lives safer and better, and will be taken completely for granted.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Peter Thiel flatly says the iPhone does not count as innovation.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz assumes it will be invested in each company it backs for 10 or more years.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Each general partner at Andreessen Horowitz can make a deal without a vote or consensus.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen said "we" repeatedly see people fail because they price too low ("too hungry to eat") and so cannot afford the sales and marketing needed to get anybody to buy the product.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Friendster's investors were, more likely than not, unwilling and unable to invest in Facebook because they were conflicted, as Friendster's founder would have objected to investment in a competing company.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Silicon Valley has become increasingly assertive in entering other industries directly, rather than only selling tools.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz's portfolio companies are getting more assertive about entering markets that earlier founders may not have been willing to enter.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 May 2017 |
In 1992 it was widely held that the internet was for academics and nerds, with no use case for ordinary people.
Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 May 2017 |
The University of Illinois, where Andreessen went to college, was then one of four US universities government-funded as hubs for NSFNET, which became the internet.
Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
28 May 2017 |
In 1993 the University of Illinois campus had broadband at the level people have in their homes in 2017.
Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
28 May 2017 |
ARPA (now DARPA) funded a military network originally conceived for nuclear command and control.
Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of 2011, Amazon was the world's largest bookseller.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of 2011, Google was the largest direct marketing platform.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of August 2011, major public technology companies had all-time low price/earnings ratios.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
Skype, the fastest growing telecom company, was just bought by Microsoft for $8.5 billion.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
20 Aug 2011 |
Andreessen expected that over the next 10 years many more industries would be disrupted by software, with new world-beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not.
Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
20 Aug 2011 |
In Andreessen's view, health care and education are next up for fundamental software-based transformation.
Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
20 Aug 2011 |
The trend toward hybrid and electric vehicles will accelerate the shift of cars to software control.
Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
20 Aug 2011 |
If the new software companies perform as expected, they will become highly valuable cornerstone companies in the global economy, addressing markets far larger than tech has historically pursued.
Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
In 2011 cars' software runs engines, controls safety features, provides entertainment and navigation, and connects cars to mobile, satellite and GPS networks.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of 2011, Netflix was the largest video service by number of subscribers.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
20 Aug 2011 |
Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
In 2011 running a basic Internet application in Amazon's cloud cost about $1,500 a month.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of 2011, LinkedIn was the fastest growing recruiting company.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
Marc Andreessen said Disney had to buy Pixar, a software company, to remain relevant in animated movies.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
Videogame makers are today's fastest growing entertainment companies, with the industry growing to $60 billion from $30 billion five years earlier.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
Jun 1995 |
George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free.
Prediction · Jun 1995 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Netscape builds cryptography into most of its products.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Jun 1995 |
Andreessen said he thought a lot of companies were going to start taking advantage of "that"; the material does not say what "that" refers to.
Prediction · Jun 1995 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Mosaic was basically written without bandwidth considerations in mind, designed for a really fast network at a time when its developers had the NSF T3 backbone (45 Mbps).
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
The idle supercomputers sit unused because scientists prefer a DEC Alpha workstation, which is as fast or faster than a supercomputer at a fraction of the cost.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Supercomputing centers cannot afford to remove their idle supercomputers from buildings; removal from the third floor costs $500,000.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Netscape did not have a major sales force in Europe as of June 1995.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
The government set the OSI networking standard, which nobody uses.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Research funding in general, and for efforts like Mosaic in particular, dropped off in the early 1990s.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Netscape has archived and sorted all incoming user feedback messages.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Jun 1995 |
Among other things, commercialization will guarantee that the Net will be there.
Prediction · Jun 1995 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Andreessen said the project he and Eric worked on never really had a manager.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Technology |
| Own records only |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Andreessen said that "we" basically declined to take a license fee because, at that point, they did not see any potential property issues.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Cryptography is export-controlled by the US government as a munition, and Netscape makes exportable versions of its software, which are the ones predominantly used on the Internet.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
AI policy and governance |