Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
216 claims · page 3 of 3
“So, by shipping product in December our revenues went from zero to a point where we're quite happy and pretty much able to fund the bulk of the company's work and development.”
Marc Andreessen, Netscape founder and COO June 1995 Smithsonian Oral and Video Histories: Marc Andreessen (Smithsonian)
After the company shipped product in December, its revenues went from zero to a level where it was pretty much able to fund the bulk of its work and development.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of June 1995, about Netscape after shipping Navigator in December 1994. True: Netscape's financial records (e.g., the 1995 IPO prospectus/S-1) show revenue rising from essentially zero before December 1994 to levels by mid-1995 that covered most of its operating expenses (revenue near or above most of costs). Mostly true: revenue grew substantially and covered a large share but somewhat less than 'the bulk' of expenses. Mixed: revenue grew substantially but covered only around half of spending, with the company relying largely on venture or other financing. Mostly false: revenue was real but covered only a minor fraction of expenses, so 'fund the bulk' is a clear overstatement. False: no product shipped in December or revenue was negligible relative to spending.
Evidence
- Investors Get Caught Up in the Netscape : Wall Street: Software company makes an impressive debut, with more than 13.8 million shares changing hands during frenzied trading. Los Angeles Times · 10 August 1995
“Earnings: $1.61-million loss on $11.9 million in revenue for second quarter of 1995.”
- Investors Get Caught Up in the Netscape : Wall Street: Software company makes an impressive debut, with more than 13.8 million shares changing hands during frenzied trading. Los Angeles Times · 10 August 1995
“The debut is even more amazing considering that Netscape had modest revenue of $16.6 million in the first six months of this year and has never turned a profit.”
- Casestudy Netscape 1995 Scribd (user-uploaded case study re-resolved by Richard L.A. Meijs, M.B.A.)
“At the end of 1994 net revenues were $696.000 and Netscape had a net loss of $ 8.470.000.”
- Casestudy Netscape 1995 Scribd (user-uploaded case study re-resolved by Richard L.A. Meijs, M.B.A.)
“Initially shipped in December 1994, Netscape Navigator generated 49% and 65% of total revenues for the quarters ended March31, 1995, and June 30, 1995, respectively.”
Reasoning
E4 says Navigator first shipped in December 1994, and E3 gives Netscape's 1994 net revenue as $696,000 against a net loss of $8.47 million, a small revenue base before 1995. The LA Times (E1) reports Q2 1995 revenue of $11.9 million and a loss of $1.61 million. That puts spending at roughly $13.5 million, so revenue covered about 88% of it. E2 puts first-half 1995 revenue at $16.6 million, so Q1 was lower (about $4.7 million), but by mid-1995 revenue covered most operating costs, which meets the 'true' threshold in the criteria.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “After the company shipped product in December, its revenues went from zero to a level where it was pretty much able to fund the bulk of its work and development.” (said June 1995). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_de139bcda02e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_de139bcda02e
Claims without a verdict
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