Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
19 claims
“We don’t have enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms, and ICU beds.”
Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder, essay author 18 April 2020 It's Time to Build (a16z)
As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 18 April 2020, for the United States (the context of the 'It's Time to Build' essay). True: contemporaneous evidence (government assessments, hospital association or academic capacity studies, credible news reports from March–April 2020) shows real or projected shortages of all three: ventilators, negative pressure/airborne-isolation rooms, and ICU beds. Mostly true: shortages are documented for two of the three plus widespread projected shortfalls for the third, or shortages were real in hotspots (e.g., New York) and widely projected nationally. Mixed: shortages documented for only one or two items, or capacity was shown to be broadly adequate nationally while shortfalls were local. Mostly false: evidence shows national capacity was largely sufficient in April 2020 and shortages were isolated, overstating a narrow situation. False: evidence shows no meaningful shortage of any of the three at the time.
Evidence
- Hospital Experiences Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results of a National Pulse Survey March 24-27, 2020 (OEI-06-20-00300; 04/20) U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Inspector General · April 2020
“Many hospitals reported concerns that they would not have enough ventilators if faced with a surge of COVID-19 patients.”
- Hospital Experiences Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results of a National Pulse Survey March 24-27, 2020 (OEI-06-20-00300; 04/20) U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Inspector General · April 2020
“When patient stays were extended while awaiting test results, this strained bed availability, personal protective equipment (PPE) supplies, and staffing.”
- Ventilator Ethics: National Supply Is Days Away From Peak Use Courthouse News Service · 8 April 2020
“As for the strategic national stockpile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency shared documents with Congress last week indicating that just 9,500 ventilators were left. Those stocks are now totally depleted, the Health and Human Services Department confirmed Monday to the House Oversight Committee, as demand continues to rise.”
- Mass. Delegation Urges FEMA to Immediately Release Enough Ventilators from the Strategic National Stockpile to Massachusetts as Hospitals Prepare for Surge Office of Senator Elizabeth Warren (press release) · 6 April 2020
“The Trump Administration currently has over 9,000 total ventilators available in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) – and over the past week has distributed these lifesaving machines to five other states.”
Reasoning
The HHS OIG national pulse survey from March 24–27, 2020 reports that many hospitals feared they would not have enough ventilators in a COVID-19 surge (E1). Contemporaneous reports say the Strategic National Stockpile had about 9,000–9,500 ventilators in early April and that HHS confirmed it was depleted (E3, E4). That documents a ventilator shortage. For beds, E2 says only that general bed availability was strained when stays were extended; it gives no ICU-specific figures, and no evidence addresses negative pressure or airborne-isolation rooms. Under the criteria, shortages are documented for only one or two of the three items, which fits 'mixed'.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds.” (said 18 April 2020). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_cc3cf2da7ea6, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cc3cf2da7ea6
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Marc Andreessen? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.