ClaimsPeople

Marc Andreessen

Marc Andreessen co-created the Mosaic browser, cofounded Netscape, and is cofounder and general partner of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

1,009 claims collected, 216 researched, 105 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    67 61 73

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 1995 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 44 unresolvable, 17 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    60 44 76

    Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 1995 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 41 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 3 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Marc Andreessen's claims

11 claims

11 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Prediction 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them. Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 26 Jan 2025 The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Prediction 2 Sep 2023 The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU. Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Prediction 2 Sep 2023 There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology. Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 1 Jan 2018 In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Resolved false Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Mostly false Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Marc Andreessen

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Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“I'm pretty confident within, call it two years, that will be a solved problem”

Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist, interviewee 12 June 2023 Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World (EconTalk)

Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that by about June 2025 the limited persistent memory of AI systems across sessions would be a 'solved problem'. The test is judged as of 30 June 2025. TRUE: by that date, leading consumer AI assistants, such as ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini, offered generally available persistent memory. They had to retain and use information from earlier sessions automatically, and contemporary expert or industry commentary had to treat cross-session memory as essentially solved rather than a major open limitation. MOSTLY TRUE: such memory was broadly deployed and working by the deadline, with only minor caveats, such as availability limited to certain tiers or regions. MOSTLY FALSE: memory features existed but were limited, in beta, or narrow in capacity, and were still widely described as a significant unsolved limitation. Being solved only after June 2025 is also mostly false at most. FALSE: by mid-2025 there was no meaningful cross-session memory in leading AI products, or the problem was widely seen as largely unsolved.

Evidence

  1. ChatGPT Can Now Remember Conversations for Free Users Too Lifehacker · 4 June 2025
    “Now, though, OpenAI is rolling out a limited version of this feature for all free and logged-in users.”
  2. I really don’t like ChatGPT’s new memory dossier Simon Willison's Weblog · 21 May 2025
    “Saved memories and Chat history are offered only to Plus and Pro accounts. Free‑tier users have access to Saved memories only.”
  3. I really don’t like ChatGPT’s new memory dossier Simon Willison's Weblog · 21 May 2025
    “The new memory feature removes that control completely.”
  4. Gemini adds Temporary Chats and new personalization features Google (The Keyword) · 13 August 2025
    “The Gemini app can now reference your past chats to learn your preferences, delivering more personalized responses the more you use it.”

Reasoning

By the deadline, ChatGPT did have cross-session memory that used past chat history, but it was tiered. Full chat-history memory was limited to Plus and Pro users (E2), and only a limited version was rolling out to free users in June 2025 (E1). Google's announcement that the Gemini app 'can now reference your past chats' is dated August 2025, after the deadline (E4). No evidence covers Claude, and none shows expert commentary treating cross-session memory as solved; commentary that did exist criticised how the feature worked (E3). The evidence shows partial deployment, not a clearly solved problem, and it also does not show memory still widely described as a major unsolved limitation.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.” (said 12 June 2023). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_b7e558d4c977, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b7e558d4c977

Claims without a verdict

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