Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
15 claims
“And, in fact, the overwhelming mood in the Valley when I arrives was that the PC was done and, by the way, the Valley was probably done because there was nothing else to do.”
Marc Andreessen, interviewee 1 January 2018 The Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Marc Andreessen (#163) (Tim Ferriss blog)
When Andreessen arrived in Silicon Valley, the overwhelming mood was that the PC was finished and the Valley was probably done too.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of the date said, about Andreessen's arrival in Silicon Valley (around early 1994). True: contemporary press or historical accounts from about 1993–1994 show a widespread view in the Valley that the PC industry had matured or stagnated and that the region lacked a next big opportunity. Mostly true: such pessimism was common and documented, but 'overwhelming' or 'the Valley was done' somewhat overstates it. Mixed: there was some pessimism about the PC, but there was also substantial optimism (for example about interactive TV or multimedia), so the claim is about half right. Mostly false: pessimism about the PC existed but was a minority view, with the Valley generally seen as healthy. False: contemporary accounts show the prevailing mood was optimistic about the PC and the Valley.
Evidence
- Chips and Dips : Silicon Valley Poised for Computer Boom Los Angeles Times · 11 October 1993
““Dataquest is very bullish on its PC forecast and extremely bullish on semiconductors,” said Skip Miller, the firm’s vice president for North America.”
- THE BIG BANG - stewart.sdsu.edu stewart.sdsu.edu (book chapter excerpt, The Big Bang: The Mosaic Web Browser and Netscape)
““The overwhelming mood in the Valley when I arrived was that it was done. The PC was done, and by the way, the Valley was probably done because there was nothing else to do.””
- 20 Years On: Why Netscape’s IPO Was the “Big Bang” of the Internet Era Internet History Podcast · 20 August 2015
“When Marc Andreessen first got to Silicon Valley in early 1994, it felt to him like the place was kind of dead.”
- Are Tiny Start-Ups New Media Giants? Los Angeles Times · 26 November 1993
“The high price of small multimedia stocks and the successful public offerings of interactive software firms such as Broderbund, Media Vision and 3D0 have not escaped Hollywood’s notice.”
Reasoning
The two contemporary articles in the evidence, both from late 1993, show optimism rather than pessimism [E1][E4]. An October 1993 Los Angeles Times article headlined "Silicon Valley Poised for Computer Boom" quotes Dataquest as "very bullish on its PC forecast" (E1). A November 1993 article describes high multimedia stock prices and successful public offerings by interactive software firms (E4). E2 and E3 only restate or paraphrase Andreessen's own recollection, so they do not independently show what the mood was at the time. Two articles cannot show the overall mood in the Valley, but what they show is optimism about the PC and the region, not a widespread view that both were finished.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “When Andreessen arrived in Silicon Valley, the overwhelming mood was that the PC was finished and the Valley was probably done too.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_9e4b5a9c9d79, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9e4b5a9c9d79
Claims without a verdict
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