Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
15 claims
“And that’s one of the reasons why Trump won.”
Marc Andreessen, interviewee 26 January 2025 Transcript for Marc Andreessen: Trump, Power, Tech, AI, Immigration & Future of America (Lex Fridman)
Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
True: credible election analysis shows that turnout among Amish voters was meaningfully mobilised (for example, in Pennsylvania) and that their votes made a measurable difference to the result, for example by deciding a state that mattered in the Electoral College or by a margin large enough that analysts name it among the causes of Trump's 2024 win. Mostly true: Amish mobilisation was real and analysts list it as a minor factor that helped Trump. Mixed: Amish turnout rose but analysis is split or unclear on whether it affected any state result. Mostly false: there was a real mobilisation effort, but Amish votes were far too few to affect the outcome in any decisive state (for example, Trump's Pennsylvania margin was well above any plausible Amish contribution), so calling it a reason for the win overstates it. False: there was no significant increase in Amish turnout, or there was no meaningful mobilisation.
Evidence
- The True Story of Pennsylvania's Amish Vote - RealClearPennsylvania RealClearPennsylvania (article by Steven Nolt and Kyle Kopko, Elizabethtown College) · 25 March 2026
“By our count, there were 2,568 Amish who voted in Lancaster County. We estimate that there were 17,490 voting-age Amish adults in Lancaster County in 2024, meaning that 14.68% of all Amish adults voted.”
- The True Story of Pennsylvania's Amish Vote - RealClearPennsylvania RealClearPennsylvania (article by Steven Nolt and Kyle Kopko, Elizabethtown College) · 25 March 2026
“While every vote counts, given that President Trump won Pennsylvania by roughly 120,000 votes, the Amish were far from a decisive bloc of voters in this election.”
- Exclusive | How Trump won Pennsylvania’s Amish vote — with the help of missionaries and Elon Musk New York Post · 12 November 2024
“By Burwell-Perry’s count, 200 community members shuttled about 26,000 people from Amish weddings to the polls to vote for Trump on Election Day — one of the highest turnouts the region has seen in recent history.”
- Exclusive | How Trump won Pennsylvania’s Amish vote — with the help of missionaries and Elon Musk New York Post · 12 November 2024
“The Amish alone did not give Trump Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. With 99% of the votes counted as of Monday evening, the Republican nominee led Vice President Kamala Harris by just over 144,000 votes.”
Reasoning
E3 reports a local effort that drove Amish voters to the polls in 2024, though its figure of about 26,000 people is Burwell-Perry's count. A later count by Elizabethtown College researchers found 2,568 Amish voters in Lancaster County, or 14.68% of voting-age Amish adults (E1). They conclude the Amish were "far from a decisive bloc" given Trump's Pennsylvania margin of about 120,000 votes (E2), and E4 likewise notes the Amish alone did not give Trump the state. So the mobilisation was real, but Amish votes were far too few to decide the result, which fits the mostly-false criterion.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election.” (said 26 January 2025). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_80e889bd3e38, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_80e889bd3e38
Claims without a verdict
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