Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
15 claims
“The precautionary principle was developed by the German Greens in the 1970s”
Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist, interview answer 2 September 2023 Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World (EconTalk)
The precautionary principle was developed by the German Greens in the 1970s.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of September 2023. True: historical sources show the precautionary principle was developed by the German Green Party in the 1970s. Mostly true: it originated in 1970s West German environmental policy (Vorsorgeprinzip) with the Greens closely involved, or a date detail is slightly off. Mostly false: it originated in 1970s West German environmental policy (Vorsorgeprinzip), but in government/legal circles rather than by the Green Party (founded 1980), so the attribution distorts a real origin. False: the principle neither originated in Germany nor in the 1970s.
Evidence
- The Precautionary Principle; 2005 - Centers for Disease ... World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST), UNESCO · 2005
“The PP, however, dates from the 1970s. Some scholars mention a Swedish and some a German origin of the PP.”
- The Precautionary Principle; 2005 - Centers for Disease ... World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST), UNESCO · 2005
“In Germany the PP ('Vorsorgeprinzip') may be traced back to the fi rst draft of a bill (1970) aimed at securing clean air.”
- Deutscher Bundestag Deutscher Bundestag, 8. Wahlperiode, Drucksache 8/3713 (Antwort der Bundesregierung) · 27 February 1980
“vor allem dem Gesichtspunkt des vorbeugenden Umweltschutzes.”
Reasoning
The UNESCO COMEST report dates the precautionary principle to the 1970s and says scholars trace it to Sweden or Germany (E1). It traces the German form, the 'Vorsorgeprinzip', to the first draft of a 1970 clean-air bill, which is a legislative or government origin, not a party one (E2). A 1980 federal government answer to the Bundestag also uses the language of preventive environmental protection (E3). The 1970s West German origin is real, but the evidence places it in government and legal circles rather than with the German Greens, which matches the criteria for "mostly false".
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “The precautionary principle was developed by the German Greens in the 1970s.” (said 2 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_39b97abe5f1f, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_39b97abe5f1f
Claims without a verdict
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